Ukraine continues to counter attack Russians trying to redeploy
Ukrainian forces conducted several local counterattacks around Kyiv, in northeastern Ukraine, and toward Kherson on March 31, successfully pressuring Russian forces and seeking to disrupt ongoing Russian troop rotations. Ukrainian forces northwest of Kyiv pushed Russian forces north of the E-40 highway and will likely assault Russian-held Bucha and Hostomel in the coming days. Ukrainian forces exploited limited Russian withdrawals east of Brovary to retake territory across Kyiv and Chernihiv Oblasts. Ukrainian forces likely conducted counterattacks toward Sumy in the past 24 hours as well, though ISW cannot independently confirm these reports. Finally, Ukrainian forces conducted limited counterattacks in northern Kherson Oblast. Russian forces only conducted offensive operations in Donbas and against Mariupol in the last 24 hours and did not make any major advances.
Russian efforts to redeploy damaged units from the Kyiv and Sumy axes to eastern Ukraine are unlikely to enable Russian forces to conduct major gains. Russia continued to withdraw elements of the 35th and 36th Combined Arms Armies and 76 Air Assault Division from their positions northwest of Kyiv into Belarus for refit and likely further redeployment to eastern Ukraine. However, these units are likely heavily damaged and demoralized. Feeding damaged Eastern Military District units directly into operations in eastern Ukraine—predominantly conducted by the Southern Military District—will likely prove ineffective and additionally introduce further command-and-control challenges for the Russian military. Russian forces will likely attempt to retain their current front lines around Kyiv and in northeastern Ukraine and will continue to dig in on these fronts; ISW has not seen any indicators of Russian forces fully relinquishing captured territory. However, Ukrainian counterattacks are likely disrupting Russian efforts to redeploy and refit their forces and will continue in the coming days.
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The Ukrainian army is counterattacking in other areas of the country as the Russians lick their wounds from previous battles. The Russians are also said to be attempting to establish some sort of governing body in areas they trying to control. Putin has only managed to bring in 200 Syrian mercenaries so far and is also attempting to draft more Russian conscripts who would unlikely to join the fight for months.
An earlier ISW report says The attempted redeployment of forces in Syria is having a negative impact on that operation:
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Russia is attempting to redeploy Syrian units with experience working under Russian commanders to Ukraine to mitigate high Russian casualties. ISW previously assessed that Russian conscription efforts at home are unlikely to provide Russian forces around Ukraine sufficient combat power to replenish casualties and restart major offensive operations in the near term.[1] A redeployment of Syrians is unlikely to significantly alter the situation in Ukraine and will incur risks to core Russian interests in Syria by exacerbating the vulnerabilities of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime that Turkey, ISIS, and anti-Assad groups can exploit. Any change to the disposition or deployment of pro-regime forces in Syria also has major consequences for Iranian interests. ISW has observed early indications of changes in the posture of Iranian proxy militia forces in reaction to recent developments and will publish an assessment in the coming days.
Syria represents the largest single pool of experienced foreign fighters that Russia can draw from to generate additional combat power relatively quickly. The pool includes Syrians currently serving alongside Russian PMCs like the Wagner group, including abroad, or in Russian-backed Syrian militias. It also includes Syrians with prior experience in such units that could be remobilized. Initial reporting indicates Russia is likely taking a phased approach to mobilizing Russian and Syrian reinforcements from the Middle East and Africa in order to generate multiple waves of reinforcements.
Russia began a redeployment of Wagner units and their Syrian proxies from Africa and Syria to Ukraine in early February. Libyan media sources began reporting the redeployment of Wager Group units along with their Pantsir air-defense systems and Syrian proxies in early February, with later reports appearing to corroborate this redeployment in early March.[2] Unconfirmed Syrian sources reported that 500 Wagner fighters had already deployed to Ukraine from Syria by March 8 alongside fighters from the pro-regime “ISIS hunters” militia, which works closely with Russian forces in Syria.[3] Ukrainian forces first reported on March 8 that they discovered Wagner dog tags with Syrian phone numbers on killed Russian soldiers and later stated on March 20 that Wagner personnel were arriving in Ukraine. British military intelligence said on March 28 that more than 1,000 Wagner militants and senior leaders will deploy to eastern Ukraine.[4] Russia has likely also pulled Wagner forces from other deployments, including the Central African Republic. Wagner Group is also recruiting actively in Syria.[5] Syrian sources reported as early as March 9 that Russian officers offered Syrians fighting in Libya new contracts to fight in the Central African Republic, likely in order to backfill Wagner forces.[6]
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There is more.
None of these moves are likely to have an immediate impact on the Russian situation within Ukraine. The Russians are a long way from recovering from their original flawed attack plans. They need to concentrate their troops closer to Russia and their supply lines. It is not clear that they are even capable of such a retrograde operation at this time.
See, also:
Not Clear Russian Convoy to Kyiv Exists Anymore, Pentagon Says
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