GOP, Dems both see Red Storm Rising

 Hot Air:

Cook Political Report published an analysis piece today titled “How Big Is the House Playing Field?” The piece starts from an acknowledgement that the midterms are shaping up as very bad for Democrats.

This week, Democratic and Republican campaign operations acknowledged that the House playing field is expanding. The NRCC added another 10 House districts to its already robust list of 72 Democratic-held targets. And on the Democratic side, the House Majority PAC announced it would be reserving nearly $102 million in advertising in a whopping 51 media markets for the fall campaign.

These moves suggest that both sides see the possibility of a Red Tsunami in 2022.

But the main thrust of the piece is that there re factors that could restrain a Red Tsunami to some slightly less dramatic. Looking the GOP’s advantage in the generic congressional ballot (currently +3.6 at RCP), Cook predicts about a 7 point shift toward the GOP, meaning any district where Biden won by less than 7 would be in danger. The good news for Dems is that there aren’t that many of those:

…there are only 21 districts where Biden’s margin was fewer than seven points. Even if we expand that universe to include districts Biden carried by 8-10 points, that universe of potentially vulnerable Democratic-held seats expands only slightly…

Every metric we use to analyze the political environment — the president’s approval rating, the mood of the electorate, the enthusiasm gap — all point to huge gains for the GOP this fall. But, those metrics are bumping up against an increasingly ‘sorted’ House with few marginal seats and few incumbents sitting in the “wrong district.” As such, the more likely scenario for this fall is a GOP gain in the 15-25 seat range.

Twenty-five House seats would be a big shift but it sounds small compared to the 54 seats the GOP gained in 1994. But don’t forget that Democrats lost 13 seats in 2020 even as Biden won the White House. So a further shift of 25 would represent a gain of nearly 40 over two election cycles.

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Other reports say as many as 77 seats could flip to the GOP.   There are already 31 Democrats who are not running for reelection and I suspect that is because they have seen the polls.  It would be good for the country to see the GOP with a margin that could override any Biden veto.