Some Democrats see Gingrich as a real challenge

Washington Post:

Newt Gingrich would be such a weak challenger to President Obama, according to Rep. Barney Frank, that his nomination would be “the best thing to happen to Democrats since Barry Goldwater.” 

Democratic strategist Jim Jordan says he and others in the party “passionately” want to face Gingrich. And from the right, conservative pundit Ann Coulter is warning fellow Republicans that the former House speaker’s past extramarital affairs and other baggage make him a far less formidable GOP nominee than Mitt Romney. 

But even as Gingrich’s sudden rise has filled many Obama supporters with cheer and some Republicans with dread, some Democratic strategists worry that the combative former House speaker would present some challenges for the Obama campaign that would not exist if Romney were the GOP candidate. 

Where Romney, the former business executive and Massachusetts governor, poses a threat in his ability to win independents and conservative Democrats attracted to his image as an economic Mr. Fix-It, Gingrich could pursue a strategy that combines energizing the conservative base and chipping away Democratic support among Hispanics — an electoral formula that helped George W. Bush win in 2004. 

Some Democrats believe that Gingrich, a hero of the conservative movement, would excite the party base more than a former liberal-state governor with a history of centrist views. 

And voters yearning for authenticity may be more open to the voluble and rumpled former House speaker, who frequently discusses his past mistakes and his recent conversion to Catholicism, than to a former equity investment fund executive with perfect salt-and-pepper hair. 

“He does not carry Wall Street baggage,” said one Democratic strategist working on the Obama reelection effort, requesting anonymity to freely discuss his thinking. “He’s really smart. He’s definitely authentic.”


Perhaps most significantly, Gingrich has an extensive Hispanic outreach organization, which he has been building for years. Unlike anything in the Romney playbook, that network could give Gingrich a head start slicing into Obama’s base in key states in the Mountain West, where Hispanics are a fast-growing swing voting bloc. Polls show Hispanic voters, two-thirds of whom backed Obama in 2008, still favor the president — but GOP strategists believe that winning just 40 percent of that vote could disrupt Obama’s electoral college strategy by putting Colorado, Arizona and Nevada in the Republican column. 

The former speaker is distributing a weekly Spanish-language newsletter to Hispanic voters (sent with the subject line “Newt con nosotros,” or Newt with us), holding a monthly call with community leaders, even studying Spanish and using it during appearances onUnivision, the Spanish-language network. 

As Romney has run hard to the right on immigration, running the risk that he might alienate Hispanic voters, Gingrich has pursued a more centrist course. He has expressed support for legalizing some immigrants with deep ties to the United States, a position that Romney has derided as “amnesty.” 

One of Gingrich’s top advisers, Lionel Sosa, was the architect of the strategy that helped Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush each win about 40 percent of the Hispanic vote.
As a result, some Democrats worry, Gingrich could attract Hispanic swing voters disappointed in Obama’s immigration or economic policies. 

“The possibility of a Gingrich nomination does scramble the deck, and it may mean that President Obama has to be more assertive on immigration issues,” said Frank Sharry, president of America’s Voice, a liberal Hispanic outreach and immigrant advocacy group. 

A Gingrich adviser, requesting anonymity, said the former speaker’s long interest in traditionally Democratic issues such as inner-city poverty is “an underestimated advantage” in a general election and could soften his image with independents. Gingrich plans to start talking this week about “conservative solutions” to urban problems, the adviser said. 

Obama aides have taken note of Gingrich’s performances in the many Republican debates. The former speaker has said he will challenge the president to a series of three-hour Lincoln-Douglas style debates — and Republican activists say they are thrilled by the prospect of the experienced and well-versed Gingrich going against Obama.

... 

I think Gingrich owes much of his current popularity to Scott Pelly who challenged Gingrich on whether it was legal to designate Americans as enemy combatants.  Gingrich shot him down with a good answer that also appeals to many Americans who want to fight the enemy where ever we find him and not get bogged down in lawfare issues.

Gingrich can be brilliant as a debater, but his management style is as chaotic as his idea a minute brain.  He would need to choose someone as a running mate who has some executive experience at organizing and implementing plans.  That person might turn out to be Romney.  Gingrich would also need a strong chief of staff that can keep him focused.