Obama's overrated reelection chances
Image via WikipediaWashington is the city of conventional wisdom. Denizens of the District of Columbia cling to a prevailing notion for dear life even when all evidence begins to point in another direction. Then, quick as a flash, the mood shifts and another idea takes hold.There is more.
So it has been with President Barack Obama and his 2012 re-election chances. Back in November, when his party was on the receiving end of the worst electoral pummelling since 1948, Obama was a dead cert one-term president, a Jimmy Carter with bells on heading for oblivion.
A compromise tax deal, the ratification of an arms treaty and the repeal of the Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell gay ban in the military later and Obama was once more a colossus sitting astride the American body politic mocking those idiot Republicans queuing up to lose in 2012.
Despite Obama’s halting ambivalence over what to do with Libya, the continued unpopularity of his signature healthcare reform and an ailing economy, the Washington cognoscenti remains convinced. Altogether now: Obama’s a shoo-in. You hear it again and again.
Last week, however, a Quinnipiac poll found that Obama had the worst re-election figures of his presidency with 48 percent of voters disapproving and just 42 percent approving of his performance. In an election now against a generic Republican – any opponent – he would lose.
“Ah-ha!” say those in the know. “He won’t be running against a generic Republican. He’ll be running against someone with flaws, who can be painted as an extreme right-wing nut case.”
Given that 82 percent of Washingtonians voted for Obama in 2008 (the figure was probably much higher among journalists) this is standard fare in these parts.
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He seems to think Pawlenty has a shot. I think Pawlenty has a chance of growing on people. While he seems charisma challenged, he has been very good at avoiding antagonizing members of the base. He has nice things to say about most of his potential opponents, including Sarah Palin. With the chances of her running looking less likely right now, that is a very wise strategy.
I want to see who is actually in before I get excited about anyone in particular. But despite whatever flaws the candidates might have, they are not nearly as flawed as Obama.
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