Poll says Texas Governor race tied?
Public Policy Polling:
Much of the anti Perry vote seems to be tied of the Trans Texas Corridor proposal which is not going anywhere. It is a dead idea and should not be an issue in the election.
One of the biggest questions about the 2010 election cycle, which we still don't really know the answer to, is whether it will be solely an anti-Democratic year or more broadly an anti-incumbent year. Our newest Texas poll would seem to suggest voter fatigue toward long serving politicians in both parties- Republican Governor Rick Perry is now tied at 43 with Democratic challenger Bill White.I am skeptical of this poll. It seems to have oversampled "moderates" and Democrats to reach this result. White is not an exceptional or strong challenger. He had developed little buzz. He is a smart guy although he is somewhat charisma challenged.
Texas would seem an unlikely candidate to provide Democrats their biggest win of the election cycle but the Governor's race there is a reminder that candidates matter. Perry is an unusually weak incumbent, while White is an unusually strong challenger. Only 36% of voters in the state like the job Perry is doing while 49% disapprove. Among independents the numbers are particularly bad- just 27% give Perry good marks to 55% who think he's doing a poor job. White meanwhile is better known and better liked than most challengers running across the country this year. 37% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 25% with an unfavorable one and he posts positive numbers with independents at a 35/24 spread.
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Much of the anti Perry vote seems to be tied of the Trans Texas Corridor proposal which is not going anywhere. It is a dead idea and should not be an issue in the election.
As i commented on their site, this poll seems to fall into the "outlier" category, given that no other poll has shown anything even approaching these results. Either we have to believe that every other poll has gotten it wrong, or we must conclude that there is something not quite right with these results -- which is a statistical possibility (depending on sample size and methodology, between 1% and 5%) any time you take a poll.
ReplyDeleteAs i explained to my government class last week when we talked about polling -- if you have a swimming pool full of 1 million pingpong balls (100,000 of them red and the rest white) and you draw out 1000, there is always a chance of randomly drawing out nothing but red ones...