McChrystal's pessimism

Independent on Sunday:

Sacked US General Stanley McChrystal issued a devastatingly critical assessment of the war against a "resilient and growing insurgency" just days before being forced out.

Using confidential military documents, copies of which have been seen by the IoS, the "runaway general" briefed defence ministers from Nato and the International Security Assistance Force (Isaf) earlier this month, and warned them not to expect any progress in the next six months. During his presentation, he raised serious concerns over levels of security, violence, and corruption within the Afghan administration.

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This may be the source of reports last week of a grim analysis in US conservative papers. It is important to understand the qualifier of the next six months. It would be surprising if the surge could be effective before that time period expires because many of the troops are not even in the country yet. The situation could change dramatically in the next year as the troops get an adequate force to space ratio and the Taliban suffer from the loss of leadership due to our efforts to capture or kill their commanders.