UAV attacks are not enough to destroy enemy

Eli Lake:

A key al Qaeda military planner thought dead by the United States and Pakistan gave an interview this week to a Pakistani reporter, illustrating the uncertainties of a military strategy based on air strikes by unmanned drones.

Major U.S. news media reported that Mohammad Ilyas Kashmiri was killed Sept. 7 by a predator drone strike, quoting U.S. and Pakistani intelligence officials. But some of those officials are reassessing their judgment after a man identified as Kashmiri gave an interview to the Asia Times.

"While there were preliminary indications that Kashmiri may have been dead, there is now reason to believe that he could be alive," a senior U.S. official told The Washington Times on the condition of anonymity because he was discussing intelligence matters. "It's not always an open-and-shut case."

The apparent resurrection of the Kashmiri terrorist suggests that the U.S. strategy of drone attacks on al Qaeda leaders can lead to false confidence that targets have been killed. U.S. officials have reported killing more than a dozen of the 20 top militant leaders in the past year.

Analysts say that a counterterrorism policy that relies on unmanned craft has disadvantages compared with a counterinsurgency strategy in Afghanistan that requires large numbers of U.S. troops.

"Cases like this highlight why drone strikes have to be part of a larger strategy," said Andrew Exum, a former Army Ranger officer and part of an assessment team that advised Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, commander of U.S.-led forces in Afghanistan.

"Drone strikes like this can't stand alone because ... they are heavily dependent on real-time intelligence," said Mr. Exum, a fellow at the Center for a New American Security. "If we can't measure the success that we are supposedly having with drone strikes, it calls into question strategies that rely almost exclusively on drone strikes in our war against terrorism."

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This is more evidence that the Biden "strategy" will not be successful. The drone strikes should be part of an integrated effort that puts pressure on the enemy wherever he is found. It should be part of a large combined arms operation that denies sanctuaries to the enemy, but also more importantly, denies movement to the enemy. That is how you defeat an insurgency. The decapitation strikes are important, but denying enemy movement is the key.