Independents moving to right

Byron York:

As promised, Barack Obama is bringing change to America. He's making it more Republican.

It's not that more people are actually becoming Republicans or calling themselves Republicans -- the number of voters who formally identify with the party is at its lowest point in years. But we appear to be in the early stages of a shift in which political independents, people who not too long ago were sick of Republicans, are now leaning toward GOP positions on some key issues.

They still call themselves independents, but they're worried by the left-leaning policies of President Obama and the Democratic Congress, especially on the economy. "The middle, which wanted to move away from George W. Bush, did not want to move this far left," says a Republican pollster who is tracking the shift. "They are tending to agree with what Republicans are saying more and more, despite the previous eight years."

For example, in a private poll done recently for the House GOP leadership, voters were asked whether they think the economic stimulus package is working. The two parties were on opposite sides of the question -- 60 percent of Democrats said the stimulus is working, and 79 percent of Republicans said it's not. But among independents, 57 percent said the stimulus is not working -- a number much closer to the Republican than the Democratic position.

When you look at public attitudes toward the budget, health care, the environment, and other top issues, you see a similar picture: Republicans and Democrats are on either end of the spectrum, but independents aren't exactly in the middle. They're leaning a little bit right. And even though Republicans remain unpopular, voters seem willing to take a new look at them, if only by default.

Last month's NBC/Wall Street Journal poll asked whether people would prefer to see next year's elections result in a Congress controlled by Democrats, or a Congress controlled by Republicans. People gave a slight edge to Democrats, 48 percent to 45 percent. Last year at this time, the Democratic lead was 19 points -- a clear move toward Republicans.

On a related issue, the Gallup organization is finding a new trend toward conservatism. Gallup conducts thousands of interviews with Americans each year and always asks respondents to describe their political views. So far in 2009, 40 percent of those surveyed call themselves conservative. That's up from 37 percent in 2007 and 2008, when the percentage of people who called themselves conservative fell to its lowest point in more than a decade.

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I think it will continue to move in this direction as Democrats cram down their health care agenda and anti energy policies. They have no serious plan to pay down the deficit or deal with the economy.