Hispanics can be somewhat tribal in their voting patterns but there is no reason why they should automatically favor policies for those who come here illegally. If the fight is about the rule of law, Hispanics are as law abiding as other demographics.Houston Mayor Bill White seems to have mastered the art of deflecting questions about his political future with a few aw-shucks grins and artful denials.
But with the prospect of an Obama Cabinet position seeming more remote for the former deputy energy secretary, White is preparing to put speculation to rest with a definitive answer soon, perhaps this month, aides said.
Whatever plans he declares, a perhaps more burning question still looms large over his intentions: Can he actually win statewide office?
Among the chattering classes in Austin and Houston, and even some White lieutenants at City Hall, no one is quite sure. But they do agree on at least one thing: Whether he runs to replace Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison next year if she resigns to run for governor, or whether he seeks the state's top job himself in 2010, White may have an uphill battle ahead.
The chances for a Democratic governor in the next election "are more bleak than any Democrat honestly wants to admit," said Mark Sanders, a Republican consultant who ran Democrat Tony Sanchez's 2004 campaign against Gov. Rick Perry. "It's not going to happen in 2010. There are just too many factors working against that."
Chief among the challenges, according to Sanders and more than a dozen strategists from both parties, is a significant GOP advantage laid bare by the Nov. 4 election results, even in a contest that saw historic statewide turnout for Democrats. Political handicappers all over the state are still parsing reams of data, but many are putting the divide at between 8 and 10 percentage points, a daunting deficit in the near term. Some have even wondered whether 2014 would be a more optimal year.
"In a positive Democratic climate with a good candidate like White, you might bring that down to the mid-single digits," said Cal Jillson, a professor of political science at Southern Methodist University. "Whether you could bring it down to zero in 2010 — or in other words, win — is a tall order."
Given such a built-in Republican lead, political scientists and strategists say, White would need a boost in at least two ways: first, a weakened GOP opponent in Perry or Hutchison after either emerges from what's shaping up to be a potentially bruising primary, and second, a successful beginning to Barack Obama's presidency. Without those, White faces long odds, many said, although they also cautioned that Obama's election may have ushered in a much less predictable political era.
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The 2010 election "will lean red instead of blue, but the clock is ticking," said Jerry Polinard, chair of the political science department at the University of Texas-Pan American. As the Hispanic voting population grows, it could eventually turn the tide statewide to Democrats. Polinard predicted that unless Republicans begin to woo Hispanic voters, Democrats could begin sweeping statewide elections within the next three election cycles.
Some Republican consultants agreed, which is why so many loathe the prospect of a Perry-Hutchison primary. If the race leads both candidates to highlight tough-on-illegal-immigration bona fides, it could further push away many Hispanics, a development that would favor White or any other Democrat.
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I think White would have a difficult time in a governor's race against either Perry or Hutchison. His best shot would probably be in the Senate race where no Republican has really stood out as an obvious choice. He would still have a difficult race, but his name identification in Southeast Texas might make him competitive against a lesser know Republican.
I think the facts are that in a statewide race, Republicans still hold a 10 point advantage. They demonstrated this in a race more favorable to Democrats than any in recent memory in 2008.
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