Behind the Blago-Obama spat

Willie Brown:

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I can't go into details, but my impression is that the whole mess started because the governor had been considering appointing a political rival, Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan, to the Senate so she wouldn't be able to run against him when he went up for re-election in 2010.

Apparently, Obama's people weren't happy about the idea of Madigan coming to Washington, and there were some pretty heated conversations between Blagojevich and Obama chief of staff Rahm Emanuel, which I understand will burn your ears off.

It was pretty clear that Blagojevich is going to hang tough, especially after the Illinois Supreme Court shot down Madigan's request that he be forced from office because he supposedly can't carry out his duties.

It is also pretty clear that despite all the screaming over his appearing to be "selling" the seat in return for political favors or financial considerations, his fellow Democrats are not going to strip him of his power to appoint someone to replace Obama.

Publicly, they may say that's because a special election would cost the state millions. But the truth is, the Democrats are deathly afraid that with all these corruption stories swirling around, a do-gooder Republican could win the seat and damage the Democrats' chances of holding a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate.

And you know what? They're probably right to be afraid. If there was a fight, the only way the Democrats could hold onto the seat would be to have Obama himself come in and campaign.

That, however, would make it a referendum on him - and Obama would not want to put himself in that position so early in his presidency, even in his home state.

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I have always seen the Madigan selection as a bitter pill used to get leverage. It clearly did not work. Brown discloses the dilemma the Democrats now have. They seem to have the choice of a discredited selection of Blagojevich that the Senate might no even seat, or a special election that they are likely to lose. The latter course is the least messy, but the loner Blagojevich hangs tough, the more likely the Dems are to compromise with him. Maybe they will pick Michelle since I hear she is looking to make some money in Washington too.