Another successful missile defense test
A missile shield test was a "smashing success," Pentagon officials said Friday, despite the failure of the test to put to rest concerns that the interceptor might not be able to differentiate between real missiles and decoys.The good news is that the dummy failed to deploy and not the missile defense system. The latter would have been a serious problem. The former is merely a frustration and the description of the problem suggest that the dummy systems are inherently problematic. Hopefully the adversaries will have similar problems.The ground-based interceptor missile, launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, destroyed a long-range ballistic missile launched from Kodiak, Alaska, the Defense Department's Missile Defense Agency said.
But one key aspect of the test -- to see whether the system could tell the difference between a missile and a decoy aimed at confounding its "seek" systems -- failed because the decoy did not deploy.
Officials told CNN on Thursday that Friday's test would be the most realistic of 13 missile shield system tests conducted to date. Eight of the 13 tests have now been deemed a success by the Pentagon.
Watch a Pentagon spokesman explain the Friday's problem »
This was the first test in which a crew at an alternate fire control center in Alaska remotely launched the interceptor missile from California.
The "initial indications," according to the Defense Department, are that all components of Friday's test performed as designed.
Critics have long complained that the tests are not realistic because they don't involve balloons or other simple decoys that, they argue, could easily fool the interceptor.
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Nice pun, with the "smashing success" line, since that is one of the ways they destroy the incoming missile.
I believe that this was a test of the mid phase missile defense system, which is multi layered. The first phase is the launch phase systems, which in my opinion are the most ideal since the dummy never gets a chance to deploy and the enemy missile is hit when it is most vulnerable as it is taking off. There are three layers at least and the third layer deals with what gets through the first two.
How Do We Define Success?
ReplyDeleteOn December 5, a rocket launched from Kodiak was intercepted by a rocket launched from Vandenburg AFB in California. As the champagne celebratory haze clears, keep a few things in mind:
1. It wasn't a resounding "success": According to Lt. Gen. Patrick O'Reilly, head of the Missile Defense Agency, "...the target did not release planned countermeasures designed to try to confuse the interceptor missile. O'Reilly did not say what those countermeasures were, but they often include decoys or chaff to throw off shoot-down attempts." Apparently the technology to shoot down a real enemy missile which would have countermeasures is not yet working.
2.It wasn't a truly realistic test: The "test" was very tightly controlled - everybody knew when the interceptor would be launched and its probable path (they've launched targets from KLC before). One wonders what would happen if they actually had to scramble an interceptor with no prior warning. Now that would be a true test.
3. If the U.S. can't launch an ICBM that works the way it should, why do we think other countries can? Neither North Korea or Iran has ever successfully fired a missile that had any chance of landing anywhere near the U.S. Right now, if North Korea got really lucky, they might be able to hit the tip of the Aleutians. We are sure the folks out there appreciate the expenditure of ten billion dollars a year to help them sleep more soundly.
4. It's ALL about the money: Roughly $10 billion is spent per year on the program, which is run by defense contractor Boeing Co. but includes work by most of the nation's largest weapons makers. It is spread across three branches of the military and is composed of missiles, radar and satellites designed to intercept missiles during different stages of flight.
5. Fortunately, President-elect Barack Obama expressed skepticism about the capabilities of the system during his campaign, leading to speculation he may reduce the program's scope. Russia has strongly objected to plans to install missile interceptors in Eastern Europe.
6. At least the true character of the KLC has finally been admitted. According to the AP: "WASHINGTON - The Defense Department said today it shot down a missile launched from a military base in Alaska..."
7. Finally, Kodiak desperately needs a new high school and a new police station and jail. Our roads are a mess and infrastructure in Kodiak, Alaska and all across the United States is crumbling. Take a drive down Mission Road past the Salvation Army and ask yourself: Is Missile Defense worth it? Friday's test cost between $120 million to $150 million.