Taxes, energy and national security are the issues

Karl Rove:

No campaign moves in a straight line. Every race experiences turns toward one side or the other, driven by events, the determined efforts of one candidate, or even a bored media hoping for a new story line.

This campaign's most recent turn started Sept. 15 with the credit markets shutting down and the economy at the brink of disaster. Before then, John McCain was 2.1 points ahead in the RealClearPolitics average, his first lead since late March. Two weeks later, RealClearPolitics had Barack Obama ahead by 4.6 points, rising to an 8.2-point lead on Oct. 14.

Is there one more turn in the contest and, if so, will it be toward Mr. McCain?

The race has tightened slightly in recent days to an average Obama lead of 6.8 points yesterday. And there are a few things bending toward Mr. McCain. The emergence of "Joe the Plumber" and the likelihood of an agreement with Iraq on a continued U.S. troop presence are two of them. Both are opportunities for Mr. McCain to contrast himself against Mr. Obama.

Mr. Obama's troublesome friendships with Bill Ayers, Tony Rezko and (especially) Rev. Jeremiah Wright are important. But only 12 days remain. These relationships should have been highlighted by the McCain campaign in the spring and summer.

But Mr. McCain complicated things by unilaterally declaring Rev. Wright off limits. Now, Mr. Obama will benefit from the noise the media will generate if Mr. McCain attempts to make Obama's Four Amigos this election's closing act.

On the other hand, Mr. McCain might gain by arguing that in this time of consequence for America's economy and security he has been right and Mr. Obama demonstrably wrong on the biggest issues facing the country.

Mr. McCain's economic argument is simple: Raising taxes on small businesses in the face of recession will deepen and prolong the downturn. Taxing Joe the Plumber and other entrepreneurs to pay for what the National Taxpayers Union says are Mr. Obama's $293 billion-a-year new spending plans is an expense the nation cannot afford. Mr. Obama's tax-and-spend prescription will cause the economic fever to spike, not recede.

On national security, America is close to a bilateral agreement with Iraq that will continue sending U.S. troops home based on success -- the result of the surge that Mr. McCain strongly advocated and Mr. Obama fiercely opposed. Should we elect someone so wrong about a strategy vital for success in what Osama bin Laden calls the central front in the war on terror?

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Rove does not mention energy, but it is still an issue. McCain got a jab in on Obama by noting that the Democrat was only committed to "look" at offshore drilling, not implement it. Obama is also tied in with the energy hating left in so many ways that it will be impossible for him to get an effective energy policy.

Obama wants to make the campaign about th economy by the tax policy and energy policy that Obama and the Democrats are pushing will destroy the economy and the American dream.

On national security, Obama has been dead wrong about Iraq for the last two years and is determined to effect his wrong policy regardless of the consequences.