The congressional races

Power Line:

Have the polls always been as variable as they are this year? It's funny how hard it is to remember from one election season to the next, but I don't think so. I think there is more volatility and uncertainty this year, maybe because the underlying trends that start to emerge when we have a week or two of calm keep getting scrambled by external events, like the recent financial crisis in its several manifestations.

For what it's worth, here are a few items of good news from current polls. Nationally, the Democrats' advantage in generic Congressional preference narrowed last week, in Rasmussen's survey, by two points. It's now at six points and falling. If it drops another point or two in the next week, that indicator, at least, will suggest a pretty good year for the Dems, but nothing like the blowout of 2006.

In Pennsylvania, it appears that Jack Murtha may be in deep trouble. We linked a day or two ago to a poll that showed his race with Bill Russell, a formidable conservative challenger, within the margin or error. Michelle Malkin says she's been "leaked" a poll by Dane and Associates that has Russell leading Murtha by a remarkable 13 points. I haven't seen this poll reported anywhere else, but when a Congressman calls his constituents "racists" and "rednecks," it shouldn't be a shock if they decide it's time for him to go. You can donate to Bill Russell's campaign here and help make it happen. An election in which Mad Jack gets ejected from the House of Representatives isn't all bad, no matter what else happens.

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Besides the Murtha race, Democrat incumbents are in trouble in places like the Texas 22 district where Pete Olson is challenging Nick Lampson who won the DeLay seat after the Democrats blocked having a Republican on the ticket in 2006. In Florida the seat that Democrats won because of the Mark Foley emails to Pages, is in trouble because of the the Democrat incumbent's own sex scandal.

It is possible that some of the Blue Dog Democrat seats are in trouble because of their association with the awful Pelsoi House regime.

While there are some GOP senate seats in jeopardy, John Cornyn has a comfortable lead in Texas as does the Republican running to replace Larry Craig in Idaho.