Optimism among the pessimist in Afghanistan

Michael Yon:

Can the war in Afghanistan be won? It depends on whom you ask.

The senior British commander in Afghanistan recently was quoted in The Times of London, "This war cannot be won." A French diplomatic dispatch reports that the British ambassador said the best solution would be to find an "acceptable dictator" to take over the troubled country.

But the British soldiers with whom I was recently embedded in Helmand Province had very high morale and felt optimistic about Afghanistan. And British and American officers whose judgment and honesty I trust share that optimism, even acknowledging the difficult challenges they face, andthat this will take a decade (according to Brits) or decades (according to Americans).

Do these soldiers know something their leaders don't? Or is it just another Afghan paradox?

This is a land of paradox. The people here are friendly and hospitable, violent and suspicious. The war effort enjoys broad support, yet our alliance is unraveling. The Taliban are widely despised, and yet certain elements of it are integral parts of Afghan society. People want the national government to succeed, yet they have little or no faith in it. In many respects, while the country takes center stage in today's geopolitics, it is stuck in the Middle Ages.

I've driven over a thousand miles up and down Afghan roads during the past few weeks to find that many locals are thankful to the coalition of American, British and other NATO forces that are trying to bring peace and stability to the country. Others say they hate us.

It has become clear to me that we're losing this war. But losing doesn't mean lost.

When someone says they know what to do in Afghanistan, it's best to remain skeptical. Some folks are flat-out lying, like recent attempts to deny the existence of a secret report documenting how 10 French soldiers who were killed didn't have enough ammo or working radios. Others are telling us what we want to hear, like it will just take a few more troops and some border incursions into Pakistan to straighten out this mess.

There are a few honest players in Afghanistan, and I'm listening carefully to them. But please understand this much: In a land whose paradoxes can confuse and even crush powerful empires, any solutions - if they even exist - will not be simple or painless.

When I traveled extensively in Iraq, I spent a lot of time with combat units that were consistently winning against the enemy, both in kinetic operations and gaining the support of the people. All the while, we were losing certain aspects of that war, both in Iraq and back on the home front. It wasn't until our tactical superiority was supported by an effective strategy that we started turning things around. Iraq now has the chance to become a peaceful and prosperous country, and a good ally. I sense that the day will come when I will request a visa to go on vacation in Iraq.

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Describing his successful partnership with the U.S. ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker, Petraeus recently said: "There has to be absolute unity of purpose, unity of effort, even if there cannot be and will not be unity of command."

Right now, our enemies have unity of purpose: They want to kick us out of here. Meanwhile, we can't even agree about whether or not this war can be won.

There was a point during the Iraq war where I said we were not losing, but we were not winning either. I think the same can be said for Afghanistan at this point. Some of this is because the enemy has switched much its resources from Iraq to Afghanistan. Some of this is because Pakistan has been too indifferent to the use of its soil as a sanctuary.

We are still fighting a very weak enemy and when the situation turns in Afghanistan it can do so as rapidly as it did in Iraq. What is needed to do that is an effective offensive in Pakistan to deny the enemy a sanctuary. In Afghanistan we need to deny the enemy its logistic base in the poppy fields. Converting the farmers to food that will produce more money for them has to be a priority.