General McCaffrey looks at Iraq

Small Wars Journal Blog:

Violence Down Dramatically – The struggle for stability in the Iraqi Civil War has entered a new phase with dramatically reduced levels of civilian sectarian violence, political assassinations, abductions, and small arms/ indirect fire and IED attacks on US and Iraqi Police and Army Forces.

Al Qaeda Tactically Defeated and Trying to Regenerate – AQ has been defeated at tactical and operational levels in Baghdad and Anbar, but are trying to re-constitute in the north and along Syrian frontier. The Iraqi people have turned on AQI because it overreached trying to impose an alien and harsh practice of Islam inconsistent with the more moderate practices of the Sunni minority. (16% of the population.) The foreign jihadist elements in AQI (with their enormous hatred of what they view as the apostate Shia) have alienated the nationalism of the broader Iraqi population. Foreign intervention across the Syrian frontier has dropped substantially. Most border-crossers are suicide bombers who are dead within four days while carrying out largely ineffective attacks on the civilian population and the Iraqi Police.

Iraqi Security Forces Key Factor in Successful Internal Security – The ISF is beginning to take a major and independent role successful role in the war. The previously grossly ineffective and corrupt Iraqi Police have been forcefully re-trained and re-equipped. The majority of their formerly sectarian police leadership has been replaced. The police are now a mixed bag--- but many local units are now effectively providing security and intelligence penetration of their neighborhoods. The embedded US training teams have simply incredible levels of trust and mutual cooperation with their Iraqi counterparts. Corruption remains endemic. However, much remains to be done. This is the center-of-gravity of the war.

Central Government Does Not Work – There is no functional central Iraqi Government. Incompetence, corruption, factional paranoia, and political gridlock have paralyzed the state. The constitution promotes bureaucratic stagnation and factional strife....

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There is much more. I have often made the point that the problems with the Iraqi government are structural. It was designed to protect the minority from the tyranny of the majority. But, the requirement of super majorities makes any accomplishment nearly impossible. This is why much of the progress in Iraq has been on the grass roots level. Added to the structural problems of the government is the mistake of the Sunnies in boycotting the election that selected the current leaders. It may take another election to right this problem.

His report on the military situation appears correct. He also reports on the economic situation and the refugee problems. It is worth reading in full.

Jules Crittenden has some interesting comments on the report.