Serge is safest option for both parties

John Podhoretz:

LET me make a fearless pre diction here, one that I would not have made six weeks ago: George W. Bush - you know, that deeply unpopular president who has lost all credibility with the American people, or so they say - is going to get his way yet again on Iraq.

The new strategy in Iraq - the so-called surge - will continue through the winter and into the spring. In theory, there should be enough anti-war Democrats and fed-up Republicans to bring about a confrontation that would force Bush to short-circuit the surge. But it's not going to happen.

The political conflagration everybody predicted for this month is going to fizzle, and here's why: It's the safest option for both parties.

Gen. David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker will report to Congress next week on the state of the Iraq war and the political conditions inside the country.

All indications are that Petraeus will offer convincing evidence of startling and unexpected progress against al Qaeda and the Sunni insurgency, while Crocker will offer a far more mixed analysis of Iraqi political efforts to achieve political reconciliation.

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One can argue - and many will argue - that by eagerly citing the failure to meet political benchmarks, Bush's opponents are judging the surge prematurely. It only reached its full strength at the beginning of July, and therefore we cannot yet measure its effect on national Iraqi politics.

But that answer will not satisfy anyone who has already given up, or anyone who has, consciously or not, begun actively to root for an American defeat in order to cause Bush the maximum possible humiliation.

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A GOP meltdown has always been the greatest risk for the continuation of the surge, and the more positive situation on the ground in Iraq simply doesn't justify that meltdown right now.

The best hope for Republicans in 2008 is a turnaround in Iraq. If they abandon Bush and the surge at this late point, they will sacrifice the support of their own base without winning any new supporters. Chances are they've figured this out - or they've already figured out that (perhaps like Sen. John Sununu in New Hampshire) they're probably toast anyway, so there's not much point in joining the jackals.

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There is no benefit to Republicans in embracing defeat in Iraq. None. Victory in Iraq will also destroy the Democrats for a generation or more. Victory provides a great upside for Republicans and embracing defeat in Iraq will also embrace defeat for the Republicans. That should make it an easy decision. I think Gen. Petraeus has done what he had to do in Iraq and that is to buy more time for victory.