Metrics of Taliban "resurgence"

The Washington Post touts an analysis by "Western diplomats, private security analysts and aid workers," or "private security and intelligence analysts," that suggest the Taliban "is enjoying a military resurgence."

If they are, we should ask them for more resurgence since militarily they are getting their but kicked.

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U.S. Army Gen. Dan K. McNeill, the top NATO commander in Afghanistan, said much of the activity attributed to the Taliban and other militant groups probably was not part of the anti-government insurgency, but more likely was related to criminal activity, narcotics trafficking and tribal disputes. And in some cases, he said, levels of conflict are up because more NATO, U.S. and Afghan forces are pushing into areas of the country where they had never operated. There are an estimated 50,000 international troops here, about half of them American.

"Logic tells you the number of incidents you report are going to be increased," he said.

The Taliban's use of guerrilla warfare tactics -- particularly suicide attacks and roadside bombings -- is on the rise, largely because the insurgents cannot challenge foreign security forces through conventional means, McNeill said. About 60 percent of Afghanistan -- a country slightly smaller than Texas and with 32 million people -- experiences on average less than one significant security event a week, he said, although "the south and the east are clearly exceptions."

The rise in attacks reflects "acts of desperation," said Humayun Hamidzada, the spokesman for Karzai. "If you go and blow up 20 civilians, what does it show? Does it show strength? It shows their weakness. It's no resurgence. It's just showing who they really are."

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In almost every engagement with US or NATO forces the Taliban suffer significant casualties. In one Taliban ambush they lost 100 KIAs to one casualty for the good guys. This is not atypical for their failed ambushes. One of the problems with using attacks as metrics is that they do not distinguish between failed attacks and successful ones. The Taliban have had no successful attacks. Because of that they have resorted to kidnapping and extortion such as that used against the South Koreans. The Taliban recently kidnapped two Italian soldiers who were later rescued with the Taliban losing around 10 KIAs.

The Taliban have only proved that they cannot win in Afghanistan.

The Strategy Page has a good analysis of Taliban failures in the last year. Most recent Taliban actions have further alienated them from the people. that is not the way to win an insurgency.