Petraeus asks to put off decision on size of troop reduction

Michael Gordon, NY Times:

The top American commander in Iraq, Gen. David H. Petraeus, has recommended that decisions on the contentious issue of reducing the main body of the American troops in Iraq be put off for six months, American officials said Sunday.

General Petraeus, whose long-awaited testimony before Congress will begin Monday, has informed President Bush that troop cuts may begin in mid-December, with the withdrawal of an American combat brigade, about 4,000 troops. By mid-July, the American force in Iraq might be down to 15 combat brigades, the force level in Iraq before Mr. Bush’s troop reinforcement plan.

The precise timing of such reductions, which would leave about 130,000 troops in Iraq, would depend on conditions in the country. But the general has also said that it is too soon to present recommendations on reducing American forces below that level and has suggested that he wait until March to outline proposals on this question.

Many Democratic lawmakers have demanded deep troop cuts as well as a timetable for making the reductions, and there has been concern within some quarters of the Pentagon about the stress of repeated deployments. The effect of General Petraeus’s recommendations would be to begin troop reductions somewhat earlier than many experts had anticipated, while deferring deliberations on more fundamental troop issues. In effect, the much-awaited September debate in Congress over Iraq would become a prelude for another set of potentially difficult deliberations next year.

On Monday, General Petraeus is to begin two days of hearings, along with Ryan C. Crocker, the American ambassador to Iraq. The commander is expected to present a series of military statistics that indicate that some headway has been made toward reducing violence in Baghdad.

A White House official said that Mr. Bush and General Petraeus had not spoken since they saw each other in Anbar Province last Monday. But General Petraeus’s recommendations on how to proceed on reducing the force have been outlined to Mr. Bush and senior officers. “General Petraeus has made recommendations on the pace by which the surge forces can run their course, and he will explain to Congress his recommendation on when the withdrawals without replacement can begin, based on certain assumptions about the situation on the ground,” said an officer, who has heard the commander’s recommendations.

“He has also argued that recommendations on reductions below the presurge force levels would be premature at this time, and that recommendations on such adjustments should wait until March 2008,” the officer added.

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This sounds like the advice of a prudent commander instead of a politician trying to appease an unreasonable base, i.e. the Democrats. From a military standpoint it makes no sense to telegraph reductions in force. It is best to let the enemy believe his situation is hopeless. That is more likely to have him give up than giving him hope of an early retreat. Once it is clear that his situation is hopeless then we can substantially reduce the force.

The problem is that many Democrats are laboring under the false impression that our situation is hopeless. Perhaps it is their desire. What ever their reasons for the invalid assumption of hopelessness, they are acting like the retreating enemies last best hope for survival. They need to listen to the General with an open mind instead of an adversary that they must destroy on cross examination. If they do the latter, they will probably embarrass themselves.