Iran's Arab threat from within

Amir Taheri:

IS the Islamic Republic facing a growing revolt by Iran's Arab minority?

Until a couple of years ago, the question would have sounded naive. In the '80s, Arab-Iranians fought bravely against Saddam Hussein's forces, even though they were linked to the invading Iraqis by ethnic, tribal, linguistic and religious ties going back 1,300 years. Data from the Foundation for the Martyrs (which is supposed to look after war veterans and families of the war dead) show that the number of Arab-Iranians who died for the fatherland was proportionally four times higher than Iranians from other ethnic backgrounds.

In the last two years, however, evidence has mounted that Arab-Iranians - disenchanted by the Islamic Republic and angry at Tehran's increasingly repressive policies under President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad - are being drawn toward dissidence and revolt:

* Last year, rising tension in a number of towns and villages forced Ahmadinejad to cancel a much-publicized visit to the southwestern province of Khuzestan. (He later managed a shortened version of the trip, amid tight security.)

* In the last few weeks, the authorities have executed 11 men in connection with the nascent Arab revolt. Hundreds more have been arrested and shipped to jails in unknown destinations.

* Last month, bands of Arab youths ran riot in the streets of Ahvaz (Khuzestan's capital), attacking government offices and banks and setting official cars on fire. Eyewitnesses say the authorities had to bring in special Baseej (Mobilization) militia units to regain control.

The pro-government militia later raided several neighborhoods where ethnic Arabs form a majority, arresting dozens. Among them was Thamer Ahvazi, a top pop star. His crime? Singing "defiant" rap-style songs in Arabic.

The best estimates put the number of ethnic Arabs in Iran at about 2.2 million, or more than 3 percent of the population. More than half live in Khuzestan, a province that produces almost 70 percent of the oil that Iran exports each day.

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The dream of a unified Arab Shiite state (encompassing central and southern Iraq as well as Iran's Khuzestan province), which Arab nationalists call "Arabistan," appeals to activists on both sides of the border. Not surprisingly, some local tribal chiefs and even Shiite mullahs are trying to use that dream to build a constituency for themselves.

Adding to the tension are a number of armed groups, some set up by Saddam Hussein in the 1970s as a means of exerting pressure on Tehran. Often linked to smuggling networks operating in both Iran and Iraq, these groups have been mainly responsible for attacks on border posts and police stations in towns near the border.

The main source of the tension, however, is the central government's policy of implicit discrimination against the Arab minority. This is especially manifest in state-owned corporations, where non-Arabs have advantages in job opportunities, grades and pay.

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I don't see this as evidence of a viable insurgency against the Iranian regime, but they are potential allies for special forces troops when we attack Iran. The unrest does give the regime something to deal with that is a distraction from its efforts to create distractions for US forces in Iraq. That is a good thing.