Hard times and hard liners in Syria
...Kelly sees Assad being squeezed by the Iranians, his general and the Israelis. Syria, like Iran has always flown just beneath the level it would take to provoke all out war against it. That in part explains a pragmatic lack of response.
Hardliners led by Gen. Assaf Shawkat, chief of Syrian military intelligence (and Mr. Assad's brother-in-law) insist that the chinless ophthalmologist retaliate for an Israeli air strike Sept. 6 near the town of Tal al-Abyad on Syria's border with Turkey.
We don't know for sure what it was that Israel bombed because the people who do know are (mostly) keeping their mouths shut. But we can surmise it was something big, because it is uncharacteristic for these people to keep their mouths shut.
...Israeli F-15s took out two targets, sources in the Pentagon told my friend Jack Wheeler, a conservative commentator. One contained nuclear weapons components shipped from North Korea; the other Zil Zal surface-to-surface missiles from Iran. Before the fighter-bombers attacked, Israeli commandos inserted by helicopter took out the radars for Syria's Russian-supplied air defense system.
The international response to the raid -- or, rather, the lack of it -- deepens the mystery. North Korea has protested, but Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia have not.
The Israeli warplanes apparently entered Syria from Turkey. But Turkish authorities have issued only the mildest of complaints about this "violation" of their air space. The Kuwaiti newspaper al-Jarida reported that the Turkish army provided the Israelis with information on the targets.
European governments usually are quick to condemn military action by Israel. Not this time. We haven't heard a peep from the usual suspects. Bernard Kouchner, France's new foreign minister, said the Israeli raid was "understandable" if the target were weapons destined for Hezbollah, the Lebanese terror group supported by Iran and Syria. Even Syria's public complaints have been tepid, perhaps because of its unwillingness to disclose just what it was that Israel bombed.
But privately, Syrian generals are seething. And this puts Mr. Assad between a rock and a hard place. If he doesn't retaliate, he risks unemployment, or worse. But the ease with which Israel conducted the raid suggests that if Syria attacks Israel, Syria will get its clock cleaned.
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Others are noticing that Syria is not having as many al Qaeda slip into Iraq in recent weeks. This has led to a significant decline in human bomb attacks and a lower death toll, which has to be a real disappointment to the Democrats. I think it is also getting harder for al Qaeda to infiltrate into Iraq, because they have lost their sanctuaries and their rat lines into the country. Losing Anbar and Diyala were strategic disasters for al Qaeda.
If Iraq stabilizes Syria finds itself with few friendly borders, and a troublesome ally in Iran.
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