The Caliphate intelligence estimate

James Robbins looks at how Osama et.al. would look at the threat they are facing.

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We judge the Caliphate will face a persistent and evolving Crusader threat over the next three years. The main threat comes from Western military and intelligence services, especially the United States, driven by their undiminished intent to eliminate the Caliphate and a continued effort by these countries to adapt and improve their capabilities.

We assess that greatly increased global jihadist efforts over the past five years have constrained the ability of the United States to attack the Caliphate again and have led Western powers to perceive the Caliphate as a harder target to strike than immediately after Holy Tuesday (a.k.a. 9/11). These measures have helped disrupt known plots against the Caliphate.

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There is much more and it adds perspective to the NIE that has dominated the news for a few days. I think it probably still understates the dangerous position that al Qaeda is in since the collapse of its summer offensive with arrest in the US and UK spoiling planned projects and the collapse of the uprising in the Red Mosque pushing Pakistan into the areas of their sanctuary.