Media misreads McCain "appeal"

Rich Lowry:

JOURNALISTS spent months explaining how Sen. John McCain's stalwart support of the Iraq war would sink him in the Republican presidential primaries - and it didn't. Then, they swooned over McCain's performance in a New Hampshire debate where he vigorously defended the Senate immigration bill - and his numbers have been falling ever since.

The journalistic interpretations of McCain always lack the crucial context of how living breathing Republicans - you know, those people you can't find in many newsrooms - might be reacting to him. And sometimes it seems that the McCain campaign lacks that context as well. In two presidential campaigns now McCain has proven himself adept at what is becoming his signature maneuver: the suicidal assault directly into the teeth of key GOP interest groups and orthodoxies.

In 2000, McCain could have scored a monumental upset over then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush if he'd gotten to his right on a few issues - in other words, had done more to appeal to Republican voters. Instead, McCain famously alighted to Virginia Beach, Va. to denounce leaders of the Christian Right as "agents of intolerance," dooming his already-diminished chances of winning the nomination and doing himself lasting damage with conservatives.

This year McCain's kamikaze charge is on comprehensive immigration legislation that couples an amnesty for illegal aliens with border-enforcement measures. You need have only a passing acquaintance with a Republican voter or two to know this is deeply unpopular in the GOP.

Rudy Giuliani as mayor practically declared New York a sanctuary city for illegals, but now tough border enforcement is the second of his "12 commitments." And former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney flip-flopped from pro- to anti-amnesty.

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The tricky thing about political leadership is that it has to involve some followership too. Romney would have no chance to lead the Republican Party as a relatively moderate Northeasterner, because that's not where the GOP is. Nor would Rudy Giuliani, which is why he has distanced himself from many of his positions as a mayor (although in not as jarring a fashion as Romney).

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You cannot lead people where they do not want to go without coming up with a rationale for getting there. In the immigration debate, the tendency of proponents of the legislation to insult the opponents rather than address their concerns. It has not been persuasive. There have been many attempts to manipulate polling data to suggest support for immigration reform, but McCain's drop in the polls tell you where people in the Republican party really stand on the issue.