Going with the flow on GOP choice for 2008

Michael Barone:

The Republican primary electorate is fluid; the Democratic primary electorate is viscous. That's my conclusion when I look back over the plentiful polls that have been tracking the two electorates' choices in this wide-open presidential race.

The shape of the Republican race has plainly changed over the past six months. In the 15 December and January polls compiled by RealClearPolitics.com, Rudy Giuliani averaged a narrow 30 percent to 24 percent lead over John McCain, with 7 percent for Mitt Romney. In the 28 February and March polls, Giuliani's lead over McCain increased to 35 percent to 20 percent, with 8 percent for Romney.

In March, Fred Thompson announced he was considering running, and in the 19 April polls, Giuliani's lead over McCain fell to 30 percent to 19 percent, with 10 percent for Romney and 11 percent for Thompson. The 26 polls taken in May and June show yet a different picture. Giuliani still leads, but with only 26 percent; McCain, with 17 percent, is barely ahead of Thompson, at 15 percent, and trails Thompson in polls taken since Memorial Day. Romney stays at 10 percent.

The plot thickens if you look at the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire. Romney alone of the candidates has been buying television time there, and he sprinted ahead to leads in New Hampshire in April and in Iowa in May. His obvious strategy is to spend plenty of the large sums he has been raising in these early states and hope for a bounce that will propel him ahead in the many contests soon after. It remains to be seen -- perhaps until December or January -- whether Romney's lead is sustainable when other candidates start matching his Iowa and New Hampshire ad buys. Also to be seen is whether Giuliani and McCain, who bowed out of the Aug. 15 Iowa straw poll, will skip the caucuses there, as well.

Why is the Republican primary electorate so fluid? One reason is that none of the candidates matches, or has matched until very recently, the issue preferences of the conservative Republican base. That's why Thompson, who seems to be a closer match, has moved up rapidly, to the point that he led Giuliani by 1 percent in the most recent Rasmussen poll.

Another reason is that Republican voters this cycle, like Democratic voters in 2003-04, fear their side will lose and are looking for a candidate with "electability." Democrats last time settled on John Kerry -- a miscalculation, it turned out. Republicans this time are still looking around. For that reason, Thompson's standing in pairings against Democrats may be as important for his candidacy as anything else. He's got to show that he's as electable as Giuliani, who has led Democrats in most but not all polls this year.

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He also looks at the Democrat race and the generic ballot. Generic ballots are always misleading in favor of mythical Democrats who do not exist against perceptions of Republicans that fade when reality is mixed with the ballot. Most polls have shown Giuliani beating the leading Democrat, Hillary Clinton. I think he will make a stronger candidate than Thompson, because he has more passion on the subjects that really matter. He has been demonstrating this in the debates with the other declared candidates. We will need his passion for victory to match the Democrats' misguided passion for defeat in Iraq and elsewhere. He has framed the debate on that subject well by suggesting that the Democrats want to go on defense rather than staying on offense. They appear to be playing into his hands on this subject.