Romney investments in New Hampshire and Iowa paying early dividends

Washington Post:

When former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney began airing television ads in a handful of states last winter, his opponents paid little notice. Early advertising in presidential campaigns -- particularly commercials broadcast almost 11 months before the first contests -- seemed a classic waste of resources.

Four months and more than $4 million later, Romney's ads are still running, and the GOP presidential candidate is reaping the dividends. Although he remains well behind former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani and Sen. John McCain of Arizona in most national polls, his standing in the states that will kick off the nominating process has risen dramatically.

In New Hampshire, Romney leads both McCain, who won there in 2000, and Giuliani, who leads virtually all the national polls. In Iowa, his campaign's organizational depth recently drove Giuliani and McCain to drop out of an August GOP presidential straw poll -- seen as a trial run for next year's first-in-the-nation caucuses -- rather than risk a costly and embarrassing defeat at the hands of their lesser-known rival.

Romney's rise is an instructive story of seizing opportunities, maximizing small advantages, attention to detail and a few lucky breaks. The challenge his advisers faced at the beginning of the year was to prove that he belonged in the same conversation with McCain and Giuliani. Now he has done that, long before demonstrating any significant national support.

His success in the early states has come despite controversies that have hit his campaign. Most significant have been questions about his shifting positions on abortion, gay rights and other issues, and whether they represent a true change of heart or simply an attempt to appeal to the conservative constituencies who will select the next Republican nominee.

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The flip-flop label hurt Kerry because he was so clearly insincere. Romney's past positions have not been as noticeable and he conveys sincerity on his new position that Kerry could never pull off. He is still making the Howard Dean gamble of betting on the early states in hopes that they will carry him to a list of states that follow. It did not work so well for Dean when his spending in those states left him out of money for the later races. He was also hurt by the Clinton machines turn against him.

This year, Romney's early investment is devalued by the race of other states with larger delegations to hold their primaries early enough to offset the advantage that has been given Iowa and New Hampshire. That is what Giuliani and the other candidates are really counting on.

John Fund also looks at the impact of Romney's religion on the race. I think the issue may be overrated even though there are obviously a lot of Americans who reject the Mormon faith.