McCaffrey sees a chance for success in Iraq

Kevin Ferris:

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The greatest challenge facing Petraeus, McCaffrey says, is not directing the day-to-day military efforts - "Lt. Gen. [Raymond] Odierno and the troops are phenomenally courageous and competent. They'll do that" - but working with the U.S. ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker, to persuade the senior Shia and Sunni leadership to "back off the ledge" and not dive into a worsening sectarian maelstrom.

"My head tells me the situation doesn't look great, but why shouldn't it be possible for us to get that kind of response out of the Iraqis?" McCaffrey asks.

Americans have a right to be impatient but need to be realistic about expectations, McCaffrey says.

While politicians in both parties eagerly await Petraeus' September report, McCaffrey doubts whether that's enough time to fairly evaluate the new tactics.

"It is absolutely ludicrous to think that a modest increase of 30,000 troops in Baghdad by September can have any fundamental impact on the political, military or social dynamics at work in that disputed land," he says.

"February sounds more likely. By then you can say if there's a trend or if it's ephemeral. . . . September? Come on, the last brigade is closing right now."

He says he feels just as strongly about imposing Washington's conventional wisdom on Iraqi politicians as benchmarks. One example: He doesn't like the idea of bringing former Baathists back into the government.

"Why should anyone dream that the Shias and Kurds are going to let back in bureaucrats who dominated the government entirely under Saddam? ... Why would they trust a Sunni back in power?" McCaffrey asks.

"It's not illogical for the Shia to fear reversion to slave status," he says. "So by September, are they going to change all this stuff? I don't know why they would. Are we going to claim that as failure?"

McCaffrey is encouraged by some aspects of the current situation: the change in tactics that have U.S. and Iraqi forces holding areas cleared of insurgents; the numbers of Iraqi army and police committed to the fight in Baghdad; the growing Sunni opposition to al-Qaeda in Iraq; and the increase in resources and equipment for the Iraqi army - though still not enough for them to be self-sufficient.

But to show that the situation has turned around, McCaffrey says, "By Christmas, you've got to be able to drive around Baghdad in two Humvees and consider it unusual to be fired on. Right now, you ought to expect you're going to be attacked."

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I think he is right about the time frame. I think at best that the September report will be one that will buy another six months that is needed. Some changes have come much quicker than even the optimist expected such as the change in Anbar which will have a much larger impact in the long term on al Qaeda's ability to sustain its efforts in the interior of the country. We are also seeing more and more red on red action against al Qaeda in Baghdad which was how the Anbar situation turned around. If the rest of Iraq turns around as quickly as Anbar did, February would be a very realistic date. It was only last August when intelligence analyst believed that Anbar was the most hopeless part of Iraq.

BTW, Ferris has been one of the better reporters when it comes to looking at Iraq.