Al Qaeda reacts to Sunni opposition

Bill Roggio:

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One way to gage the effectiveness of the effort to turn Iraq's Sunni community against al Qaeda in Amiriyah, Anbar, Salahadin, Babil, and Diyala provinces is to watch al Qaeda's response. And thus far, Al Qaeda appears to feel threatened. They have issued verbal attacks against the Sunnis--calling them traitors--and launched physical attacks against their leaders.

In Baghdad and the surrounding provinces, al Qaeda has viciously attacked the local Awakening movements, which are modeled after the successful Anbar Salvation Council. Anti-al Qaeda clerics and tribal leaders have been targeted for assassination. In Anbar, al Qaeda has conducted a campaign against the local sheikhs and leaders of the Anbar Salvation Council.

These recent developments can be viewed as a positive indicator of the still developing Baghdad Security Plan. While sectarian killings were reported to have increased during May, after falling significantly the first four months of the year, the number reported is still half of what it was in December of 2006. The final U.S. combat brigade has just hit the ground and is still learning its area of operations. Despite this, some areas of Baghdad have seen a marked improvement in the security situation since the inception of the Baghdad Security Plan.

The security in the Karkh district, which is in the heart of Baghdad and home to Haifa Street, has greatly improved. "During the month of May, there were 35 attacks in Karkh, a drop of 60 percent from January," said Colonel Bryan Roberts, commander of the 2nd Brigade Combat Team of the 1st Cavalry Division, which is in charge of security in that area. "Even more impressive is the decrease in sectarian murders--four in the month of May, down 94 percent from January's 53."

The completion of the Adhamiyah "wall"--the concrete barrier and fence designed to secure the neighborhood--has resulted in a significant reduction in violence. "Murders are down 61 percent in Adhamiyah between the beginning of April, when construction began, and May 28, when it ended," Multinational Forces Iraq reported.

The increased security in Baghdad has forced al Qaeda in Iraq to take its fight to the surrounding provinces. The last five major attacks have all occurred in the provinces, as bigger, more complex attacks are now difficult to conduct inside the capital. As noted earlier, the attacks are taking place against Sunni sheikhs, clerics, and other leaders willing to oppose al Qaeda and its Islamic State. Attacks have also focused on other targets, particularly the Iraqi Security Forces.

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This is part of a long report on the current situation in Iraq and al Qaeda's response to it. Al Qaeda is clearly frustrated and its intimidation campaign continues to backfire on the terrorist. Since its targets are becoming less ambiguous, defending them will yield greater results against al Qaeda's operation.

Not mentioned in this report is al Qaeda's recent attacks on bridges. It appears that the terrorist are trying to cut road traffic into and out of Baghdad now that they have been denied easy operation in the capital city. They are having to use truck bombs for these attacks and our forces will have to concentrate on finding the bomb making facilities.