Al Qaeda losing support in Diyala

Blackanthem Military News:

Circumstantial evidence indicates al Qaeda in Iraq is weakening and popular support is swinging toward the coalition in Iraq's Diyala province, the commander of U.S. military forces there said yesterday.

In a call with online journalists, Army Lt. Col. Morris Goins, commander of 1st Battalion, 12th Cavalry, Multinational Division North, said the fact al Qaeda is increasingly turning to kidnapping for ransom as a means of financing implies support for the organization is waning among the area's Sunni population.

Al Qaeda "has to use the Sunni population to gain money to finance their operation," Goins said. "In addition to that, they either torture them until they join the ranks, or they in some cases kill them."

Its abuse of local citizens has cost the organization ideological support, Goins said. Increasingly, the shift has benefited coalition forces trying to secure the area.

"Al Qaeda, I think, is fighting to hold onto itself," the colonel said. "I mean, obviously, if it's attacking Sunnis and kidnapping them, that's not a good thing in Iraq. So that's a plus in (our favor)."

One way the public has expressed its frustration is by providing intelligence to U.S. and Iraqi security forces, Goins explained. Tribal sheikhs in the region are encouraging enlistment in the Iraqi police and army, he said.

...

There is something much more strategic at work that is causing al Qaeda to rely more on kidnapping Sunnis. I seem to be the only one who is saying it, but I repeat, al Qaeda has lost its rat lines back into Syria. That means it has lost its flow of funds, it supplies and it reinforcements. When Anbar flipped and chased out al Qaeda it had to have an effect further up the supply chain eventually. Since the Sheiks decided that God changed sides about six months ago al Qaeda not only got chased out of its base area in Anbar it has had to flee Baghdad and now finds itself under attack in Diyala. For some reason most have ignored the strategic consequences to al Qaeda of losing Anbar.

It should also be noted that al Qaeda's men in Damascus are now sending the resources they would have sent to Iraq to Jordon and Lebanon. They are trying to respond to their strategic necessity by spreading the playing field and concentrating on perceived weaknesses. The NY Times and others have attempted to spin this necessity for al Qaeda as a spreading of attacks from Iraq. I think they have missed the point.