Chaos theory and chaos strategy of the enemy in Iraq
Al Qaeda and some of the other factions in Iraq that oppose the new Iraqi government are using a chaos strategy where they attempt to create an impression of chaos that will give them at some point an opportunity to seize control of the country. With the help of the media they have had some success in creating the impression of chaos but the reality is quite different.
For starters their efforts have been reduced through attrition to where they are mainly concentrated in Baghdad. In 14 of the 18 Iraqi provinces the Iraqi government is in complete charge of security and they are relatively peaceful.
However the way the strategy works is that al Qaeda for example will attack non combatants in hopes that the media will publish a story critical of the government and the US for not stopping their attacks on non combatants. The media has been very compliant in going along with this strategy. In effect the media has become complicit in the murder of non combatants, because if the media did not follow the enemy strategy, there would be no military reason to murder the noncombatants. If for example, if the media limited their discussion to "another enemy war crime in violation of the Geneva Conventions, the enemy would have less incentive to murder non combatants.
By concentrating their efforts in Baghdad where the bulk of the media is hold up in hotels, the enemy also gets more bang for its bang.
The Shia death squads also play into the chaos strategy by killing Sunni non combatants in response to the murder of Shia non combatants.
The real flaw in the chaos strategy and the one that the Baker Hamilton committee failed to see in their assessment of a "grave" etc. etc. situation is the lack of military capacity to achieve their end objectives after creating chaos. The attrition of their forces have left them in a position to really do nothing beyond making a mess. The chances are remote that the enemy could mount an attack with a company size unit at this point much less a unit that would be sufficient to overwhelm an Iraqi battalion, regiment or division. That is the main reason they concentrate on attacking non combatants.
The reality is that the enemy in Iraq remains weak and is growing weaker as the war goes forward. If the media were not so compliant in following their chaos strategy the grave situation report would be about where their movement is headed.
BTW, Wikipedia defines chaos theory as:
It should also be noted that while the Taliban were not responsible for the chaos that came out of power vacuum in Afghanistan after the Soviet retreat, they certainly took advantage of it to seize power. That is probably way inspired al Qaeda to use that strategy in Iraq.
Update: The Belmont Club has an excerpt from an interview with Zarqawi shortly before a bomb attack led to his demise, where he tells of his hatred for the Shia and how he hoped to use them to drive the US out. He also excerpts Tom Ricks rehash of the Anbar intel story which is questioned in this post. Zarqawi is not completely irrational in his fear of the Shia, but his strategy certainly made it a self fulfilling prophesy.
For starters their efforts have been reduced through attrition to where they are mainly concentrated in Baghdad. In 14 of the 18 Iraqi provinces the Iraqi government is in complete charge of security and they are relatively peaceful.
However the way the strategy works is that al Qaeda for example will attack non combatants in hopes that the media will publish a story critical of the government and the US for not stopping their attacks on non combatants. The media has been very compliant in going along with this strategy. In effect the media has become complicit in the murder of non combatants, because if the media did not follow the enemy strategy, there would be no military reason to murder the noncombatants. If for example, if the media limited their discussion to "another enemy war crime in violation of the Geneva Conventions, the enemy would have less incentive to murder non combatants.
By concentrating their efforts in Baghdad where the bulk of the media is hold up in hotels, the enemy also gets more bang for its bang.
The Shia death squads also play into the chaos strategy by killing Sunni non combatants in response to the murder of Shia non combatants.
The real flaw in the chaos strategy and the one that the Baker Hamilton committee failed to see in their assessment of a "grave" etc. etc. situation is the lack of military capacity to achieve their end objectives after creating chaos. The attrition of their forces have left them in a position to really do nothing beyond making a mess. The chances are remote that the enemy could mount an attack with a company size unit at this point much less a unit that would be sufficient to overwhelm an Iraqi battalion, regiment or division. That is the main reason they concentrate on attacking non combatants.
The reality is that the enemy in Iraq remains weak and is growing weaker as the war goes forward. If the media were not so compliant in following their chaos strategy the grave situation report would be about where their movement is headed.
BTW, Wikipedia defines chaos theory as:
In mathematics and physics, chaos theory describes the behavior of certain nonlinear dynamical systems that under certain conditions exhibit a phenomenon known as chaos. Among the characteristics of chaotic systems, described below, is the sensitivity to initial conditions (popularly referred to as the butterfly effect). As a result of this sensitivity, the behavior of systems that exhibit chaos appears to be random, exhibiting an exponential error dispersion, even though the system is deterministic in the sense that it is well defined and contains no random parameters. Examples of such systems include the atmosphere, the solar system, plate tectonics, turbulent fluids, economics, population growth and the vast variety of dissipative structures.I would add al Qaeda warfare to that list.
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It should also be noted that while the Taliban were not responsible for the chaos that came out of power vacuum in Afghanistan after the Soviet retreat, they certainly took advantage of it to seize power. That is probably way inspired al Qaeda to use that strategy in Iraq.
Update: The Belmont Club has an excerpt from an interview with Zarqawi shortly before a bomb attack led to his demise, where he tells of his hatred for the Shia and how he hoped to use them to drive the US out. He also excerpts Tom Ricks rehash of the Anbar intel story which is questioned in this post. Zarqawi is not completely irrational in his fear of the Shia, but his strategy certainly made it a self fulfilling prophesy.
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