UN resolution looks like a win for Israel if implemented

Jerusalem Post:

The United States and France agreed Saturday on a draft UN Security Council resolution that calls for a "full cessation" of fighting between Israel and Lebanese Hizbullah guerrillas, but would allow Israel to defend itself if attacked.

The draft, obtained by The Associated Press, "calls for a full cessation of hostilities based upon, in particular, the immediate cessation by Hizbullah of all attacks and the immediate cessation by Israel of all offensive military operations."

The resolution would call for an "unconditional release" of the kidnapped IDF soldiers Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser. On the other hand, it only "encouraged the efforts aimed at settling the issue of the Lebanese prisoners detained in Israel."

In addition, it calls for the "full implementation of the relevant provisions of the Taif Accords and of resolutions 1559 (2004) and 1680 (2006) that require the disarmament of all armed groups in Lebanon... and an establishment of an international embargo on the sale or supply of arms and related material to Lebanon except as authorized by its government."

...

This appears to meet all of Israel's preconditions for a cease fire. Probably its biggest weakness is the "peace keeping force" issue. As currently written the existing "peace keeping force" would monitor the cessation of hostilities and a new force would be brought in by the UN to monitor the border. Who Hezballah would give its arms to is not clear. Probably the biggest hangup at this point is getting Hezballah's agreement tot he terms of the cease fire. That would require virtual capitualtion on Hezballah's part severly hampering Nazrallah's spinning it into a victory.

Update: The Belmont Club asks if this is only a temporary end to the fighting. The answer is clearly yes. This the the middle east after all, and the Muslim religious bigots enter into a hudna when they are losing in hopes of renewing the fighting at a later date. Nazrallah's hear has not been chaged nor has his suppliers in Tehran.

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