In Iraq competing armies are not fighting each other
That is what usually happens in a civil war. It is not what is happening in Iraq, despite recent suggestions that a civil war is taking place. To have a civil war you should have groups competing for power by force of arms. What we have in Iraq is competing groups making war on non combatants. Neither side has the capacity or will to fight each other much less a real military force like the US or even the Iraqi army.
The Sunnis have excersized control for 30 or more years by intimidating Shia and Kurds through the kind of violence they still perpetrate on non combatants. They are not strong enough to do this to the Kurds now and they realize that the Shia are coming to power despite their intimidation campaign. The Shia death squads are just as cowardly in terms of rounding up and killing Sunni non combatants. The new police force is probably complict in this activity. One of the ways you can tell is that when the US forces came back into Baghdad the Sunni neighborhoods immediately became much safer.
While it is still possible that something like a civil war will take place, it will be the most unusual one in history and the Sunnis will lose because they represent only 15 percent of the population. If they were rational actors rather than emotionally immature Muslims they would cut the best deal they can with the Shia and move on. The problem at this point is that they do not have that level of emotional maturity nor do the leaders of the Shai militias.
The Sunnis have excersized control for 30 or more years by intimidating Shia and Kurds through the kind of violence they still perpetrate on non combatants. They are not strong enough to do this to the Kurds now and they realize that the Shia are coming to power despite their intimidation campaign. The Shia death squads are just as cowardly in terms of rounding up and killing Sunni non combatants. The new police force is probably complict in this activity. One of the ways you can tell is that when the US forces came back into Baghdad the Sunni neighborhoods immediately became much safer.
While it is still possible that something like a civil war will take place, it will be the most unusual one in history and the Sunnis will lose because they represent only 15 percent of the population. If they were rational actors rather than emotionally immature Muslims they would cut the best deal they can with the Shia and move on. The problem at this point is that they do not have that level of emotional maturity nor do the leaders of the Shai militias.
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