Trends in Iraq

Strategy Page:

There are a number of trends in Iraq that you hear little, or nothing, about in the mass media. For example;

@ The economy. GDP doubled from 2003 to 2004, and was up double digits in 2005. Inflation and unemployment have both been falling steadily. Yes, the terrorists are still at it, but in the background you will notice all those people going to work, all the new cars and all the new construction. While big companies have stayed away from Iraq, and all those nasty headlines, smaller firms have been more aggressive. Life goes on.

@ Agriculture. For thousands of years, Iraq was a food exporter. But as oil became a larger part of the economy over the past half century, agriculture declined. Now, for the first time in half a century, Iraq is exporting food. Agriculture has come back big time, mainly because many of the regulations government bureaucrats have piled on farmers for decades, have been eliminated. A farmer can now make a lot of money, growing food in the most productive agriculture land in the region.

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@ Refugees. Before the U.S. invaded in 2003, it was believed there might be millions of refugees fleeing Iraq. Didn't happen that way. Over a million people (mostly Sunni Arabs) have fled the country, but that is a relatively recent phenomenon, linked to the growing power of the Shia dominated government, and the fear of retribution for decades of atrocities against Kurds and Shia Arabs. More surprising has been the number of refugees returning to Iraq. So far, it's over 1.2 million people, most of the them Kurds and Shia Arabs.

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There is more. The refugee trend is counter to the story put out by the NY Times recently that suggested the exodus without mention of the return. You will find the other trends interesing too if you read the whole piece.