Enemy in Iraq lacks sustainability

USINFO.STATE.GOV:

Insurgents in Iraq are showing little capacity to keep up numerous and persistent attacks, a senior U.S. general in Baghdad says.

At a briefing December 29, Air Force Brigadier General C.D. Alston said there are three reasons for the diminishing capability of the insurgents to keep up attacks. The ability of insurgents to wage sustained combat is a key indicator closely watched by U.S. military forces to determine the enemy's effectiveness.

"The first is the joint offensive operations that have been launched by coalition forces and Iraqi security forces over the course of the last several months," said Alston, who is the director of strategic communications for the Multinational Force Iraq.

The security offensive has been focused on defeating terrorists and foreign fighters, and disrupting the insurgency, he said, with great effect.

The second reason, he said, is the progressive training and equipping of Iraqi security forces.

"They continue to grow, with phenomenal capabilities. Today, there are 223,000 trained and equipped members of the Iraqi security forces," Alston said during the briefing carried by a Pentagon teleconference from Baghdad.

He said the impact of the expanded security forces was most noticeable during the December 15 Council of Representatives elections. (See related article.)

Alston said the third factor that has contributed to the diminishing capacity of the insurgents has been the active participation in the political process by Sunni Iraqis. (See Iraq’s Political Process.)

However, he acknowledged that there are still terrorists and insurgents in Iraq determined to destroy what the Iraqis are trying to accomplish.

"So increasingly powerful Iraqi security forces, with support from coalition forces, will continue focused operations to eliminate the terrorists and enable an environment in which freedom and democracy can prosper," he said.

The key for Iraq, he said, is the ability of its security forces -- civilian and military -- to provide for its national security.

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According to Alston, public support for the ISF also is on the rise, as more and more Iraqis tip off authorities about improvised explosive devices and insurgents operating in their neighborhoods. "Fifty percent of all IEDs found in Kirkuk last week were a direct result of tips from citizens," he said.

Alston also talked about how insurgent trends have changed since the beginning of the year. For instance, a spike in attacks just prior to the January election depleted insurgents' resources, which led to a decrease in their capability after the election. Neither the October referendum nor the Dec. 15 election saw such a pre-election spike; attacks did increase following the elections, but the increases were not sustained, Alston said.

Alston attributed this diminishing insurgent capability to joint offensive operations by coalition and Iraqi forces, improved training of the ISF, and active Sunni participation in the political process. "The choice of ballots over bullets is a very positive development," he said.

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The lull after the January election was the result of the enemy having to rebuild his inventory after making a maximum effort prior to the election. The subsequent elections showed that the enemy's maximum efforts became weaker and weaker. At the same time the IRaqi Security Forces were growing in strength to the point that they handled most of the security for the December 15 election. The weakness of the enemy is highlighted by the elections because he does not have the capacity to attack defended positions, be they US or Iraqi. He has to rely on the amibuity of both and place of his attacks and when specific positions are defended for a specific length of time such as in the case of the elections it really shows the impotence of the enemy.

The enemy has been helped by media misunderstanding of this weakness. The media attributes significance to the fact of an attack rather than the result of an attack. In doing so the media fails to recognize that there is nothing easier in war than participating in a failed attack. Anyone can do it, and you should not be given points for failing.