The changing face of battle in Iraq

Bill Roggio:

With the wrap up of “The Anbar Campaign”, the fight against the Iraqi insurgency is changing its nature. Large scale clear & hold operations such as Sword, Iron Fist, Rivergate, and Steel Curtain are less likely to be executed, as the efforts are moving more and more towards reconstruction/civil military affairs operations and a policing solution. There are internal political considerations, and the formation of the new government and the desire to include mainstream Sunni political parties play a large role in how operations are conducted. The Iraqi government plays a greater role in the nature of operations.

This does not mean battalion-plus sized operations will no longer occur, however they are more likely to be the exception rather than the norm. More often than not, raids are now occurring at the battalion level or below. CENTCOM’s recently released tally of the results of operations in northern Iraq reflects this trend. Over 109 suspected terrorists and insurgents were arrested and four weapons caches were uncovered in a series of small scale raids and police actions. Many of the operations referenced were carried out by Iraqi units.

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The insurgency and al-Qaeda have has basically lost out west towards the Syrian border. Lt. Col. Dale Alford, the battalion commander of the 3rd Battalion, 6th Marines, the unit responsible for the Al Qaim region on the Syrian Border, emails:

It is quiet out here because we have crushed the insurgents in this area. The Marines of 3/6 are doing well and we have settled down after a hard three months of fighting and are now doing the hard work of counter-insurgency warfare; patrolling, raids, meeting with local leaders, etc. Also, lots of reconstruction to do. We are involved in trying to stand up a government and police force, all while recruiting, training and working with the Iraqi Army. Tell everyone who will listen that we are winning this thing. I know you have heard this, but it will take time. The Iraqi Army is getting better everyday. Counter-insurgency’s are by definition a long process.

While in Iraq, several military intelligence and operations officers have stated to me al-Qaeda’s greatest weapon out west at this juncture is cash, and their ability to spread it around to misguided youths and criminals who what to “get their jihad on” and earn what the officers call their “JAR” (Jihadi Action Ribbon) for taking up arms against the Americans. These part-timers receive hundreds of dollars to take a pot-shot at Coalition forces or plant roadside bombs.

For this reason, al-Qaeda’s leadership and command structure is targeted, particularly the financiers, weapons trainers, cell leaders and recruiters.

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It is all worth reading. Roggio indicates that Ramadi is the only spot that might get a major clear and hold offensive. Curently, the Marines are "chipping away" at the insurgent leadership in the area with a series of raids. What this all suggest is the enemy has lost his rat lines to Syria and much of his logistical supplies in the area. Attrition of enemy manpower is also taking a toll on the enemy's ability to operate. There have been several caches of weapons found, many based on tips. Several of these were in the Tikrit area and the volumn of the caches and the number of finds suggest that someone familiar with the enemy operations in the area is providing information to US and Iraqi forces. While Iraq has been awash in weapons the cumulive effect of finding and destroying all of these enemy stockpiles will have a wearing effect that will further strain the enemy's ability to operate. The enemy in Iraq does not have a Ho Chi Minh Trail to bring in new supplies.

As Brig. Gen. Alston says in the post below, the concentration on capturing or killing the bomb makers is having an effect on the enemy's ability to operate. One of the indicators of this is a recent shift in tactics by the enemy toward hit and run attacks using assualt rifles. This tactic also exposes the enemy more than his IED attacks and will lead to further attrition of his forces. At this point the enemy is an ever shrinking minority of the minority Sunnis, many of which are looking for a deal.

While all this was happening, most of the mainstream media missed it. Many of the Democrats in Washington, who believed the doom and gloom reporting of the mainstream media also missed it and those Democrats thought the US was losing. Their questionable judgement about the situation in Iraq should be remembered. The media also is not going to be able to hide these events by making snarky attacks on people like Bill Roggio who clearly has a better handle on events than they do.