The Not Enough Troops Quagmire
As American forces make the most rapid advance in the history of warfare, some critics are saying that the US does not have enough forces in the area and that a quagmire is likely. The facts on the ground tell a different story. The ground attack has now been underway longer than the ground campaign lasted in the '91 war with advance that has covered close to 300 miles. In the '01 war there were approximately 200 US fatalities, so far in this campaign there have been around 25. It is also interesting that none of these casualties have been inflicted on "the tip of the spear." Most casualties have come from raids and ambushes along supply lines. None of these attacks have effected the battle plan.
For a quagmire to occur the Iraqis would need to sustain a raiding strategy after their army is defeated. There are several reason to believe this is unlikely. The experience in the port city Umm Qasr is instructive. The "resistance" was mainly attacks by Baathist thugs who act much like Stalinist thugs. Local residents told coalition forces where to find them and they were destroyed. This will be the likely pattern as other cities fall. To sustain a raiding strategy those forces need the support of the people or support from outside. It is unlikely such support will be available. Any outside source of support would be inviting their own regime change. Unlike the Vietnam conflict, President Bush has committed to having sufficient forces to do the job. His last question to the military before the war began was "Do you have all you need to win this war?"
While it is true that if Turkey had cooperated, the task would be easier, Turkey did not help in '91 either. The Turks new government looks flakey and uncertain. Apparently the population has some irrational fear about the liberation of Iraq. The irrational fear has already cost them a great deal. The cost will continue, however the Turks will benefit from the lifting of sanctions.
As American forces make the most rapid advance in the history of warfare, some critics are saying that the US does not have enough forces in the area and that a quagmire is likely. The facts on the ground tell a different story. The ground attack has now been underway longer than the ground campaign lasted in the '91 war with advance that has covered close to 300 miles. In the '01 war there were approximately 200 US fatalities, so far in this campaign there have been around 25. It is also interesting that none of these casualties have been inflicted on "the tip of the spear." Most casualties have come from raids and ambushes along supply lines. None of these attacks have effected the battle plan.
For a quagmire to occur the Iraqis would need to sustain a raiding strategy after their army is defeated. There are several reason to believe this is unlikely. The experience in the port city Umm Qasr is instructive. The "resistance" was mainly attacks by Baathist thugs who act much like Stalinist thugs. Local residents told coalition forces where to find them and they were destroyed. This will be the likely pattern as other cities fall. To sustain a raiding strategy those forces need the support of the people or support from outside. It is unlikely such support will be available. Any outside source of support would be inviting their own regime change. Unlike the Vietnam conflict, President Bush has committed to having sufficient forces to do the job. His last question to the military before the war began was "Do you have all you need to win this war?"
While it is true that if Turkey had cooperated, the task would be easier, Turkey did not help in '91 either. The Turks new government looks flakey and uncertain. Apparently the population has some irrational fear about the liberation of Iraq. The irrational fear has already cost them a great deal. The cost will continue, however the Turks will benefit from the lifting of sanctions.
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