Will US bomb Iran's nukes?
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On Monday, Trump announced with typical grandiloquence: 'If they [Iran] don't make a deal, there will be bombing… it will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before.' Some observers believed this was just more hyperbolic rhetoric. But the Israeli source was clear. 'It's not just a crazy insistence. It's extremely important for the stability of Israel and the world.'
Threats of military action against Iran's nuclear weapons programme have been made before. But there's now clear evidence that, this time, both the US and Israel intend to do more than just rattle their sabres.
A week ago the US deployed a trio of B2 'Spirit' stealth bombers, accompanied by long-range refuelling assets, to its Chagos Islands base on Diego Garcia, bringing the total strength of the bomber force there to seven. This was significant because it's rare to see such a major concentration of these sophisticated – and expensive – assets, and the B2s have the capability to deploy the GBU-57 'Bunker Buster' which can penetrate Iran's hardened nuclear shelters.
According to a second senior diplomatic source: 'From Israel's perspective, with Trump in the White House, this represents the optimum moment to deal with Iran. There won't be a better chance.'
The decision to prepare for such a major escalation is partly being driven by February's report from the International Atomic Energy Agency that Iran's stock of enriched Uranium had significantly increased. 'Iran is the only non-nuclear weapon state enriching to this level, causing me serious concern', said director-general Rafael Mariano Grossi.
According to the diplomatic source: 'Obtaining precise intelligence on just how far Iran's nuclear programme has advanced has always been hard. But the reality is they're much, much closer than anyone can be comfortable with. And they have been for some time.'
But an equally significant factor is that Israel now regards Iran as the ultimate perpetrator of the October 7 attacks. 'They are the head of the snake,' one Israeli politician claimed.
As a result, Israel has spent the past few months 'ploughing the road' to prepare for major air strikes. According to a senior Israeli military source: 'Over the past year, we struck in Yemen three or four times, and we had three air campaigns in Iran, eliminating on the way most of the aerial defence systems in Syria, Iraq and Iran. They were the main obstacle when thinking about a big aerial operation on the way to Iran - their proxy aerial defence systems.'
This emphasis on proxies is an important component of Israeli military planning. A key factor influencing a US and Israeli decision to launch a major strike was Iran's capacity to hit back, both on land and in the air. But the campaign in Lebanon is seen to have effectively neutralised the threat of Hezbollah. The Gaza assault has removed Hamas's ability to strike inside Israel. And the renewed assault on the Houthis has significantly degraded the rebels' capacity to launch long-range missiles at Israel.
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Iran's Islamic religious bigots who took control of the government would like to destroy all who disagree with their version of Islam. Israel is one of their first targets. Israel has struck back at some of the military targets inside Iran. The Iranian people are mostly hostages to the current regime in Tehran. While I have never been to Iran, I did know some students from Iran while at the University of Texas. They were pretty normal people, unlike those in the current regime. The current Iranian regime is a threat not only to Israel, but also to other US allies in the region, as well as US assets in the region.
Iran's nuclear assets are considered a legitimate target of Israel and the US. I suspect that they could be destroyed with conventional weapons and not the nuclear weapons in the US and Israeli inventories.
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