US threats against Iran include tariffs on its trading partners

 ISW:

Iran continues to threaten the United States with military action to dissuade the United States from a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities amid new US threats to strike the nuclear facilities. US President Donald Trump stated on March 30 that “there will be a bombing" if Iran does not make a new nuclear deal.[1] Trump added that he would impose secondary tariffs on Iran if Iran made no progress towards a deal.[2] Secondary tariffs would impose sanctions on countries that trade with Iran. US officials have previously threatened military action against Iran if there were no direct negotiations.[3] Iranian officials have said they are open to indirect negotiations, though they reject direct negotiations with the United States.[4] Senior Iranian officials have also repeatedly threatened to strike US interests in the region since at least January 2025, likely to shape US decision-making and discourage a US or Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear program.[5] An unspecified senior Iranian military official told the Telegraph on March 29 that Iran would attack any base "used by Americans" to attack Iran.[6] Iranian threats to attack US allies in the region may aim to discourage allies from allowing the United States to use their facilities out of fear of Iranian retaliation.

Iranian officials have recently threatened the following responses to a US-Israeli strike on Iran. These courses of action are not mutually exclusive.

  • Attack US bases and forces: Iranian officials have repeatedly explicitly threatened to attack US bases and forces in the region in recent months.[7] An unspecified senior Iranian military official told Western media on March 29 that Iran would target Diego Garcia Island in the Indian Ocean if the United States attacked Iran.[8] The United States has recently increased its military presence at Diego Garcia Island, according to commercially available satellite imagery.[9] An anonymous official also told Tehran Times that Iran's missile launchers at its underground bases are loaded with missiles and "ready for launch."[10] Iran's reported current maximum missile range is 2000 kilometers (km), and its reported maximum drone range is around 2500km.[11] Diego Garcia Island is located about 3700km from Iran's southernmost city, Pasabandar. Iran would need to significantly decrease the payload of the warhead on its medium-range missiles or otherwise decrease missile weight to launch a successful attack on Diego Garcia. Iran could target other US facilities in the region if it chose to do so. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Air Force Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh threatened on March 31 that US bases in the region are “sitting in a glass house" near Iran.[12]
  • ...

Most US bases in the region have anti-aircraft defense that would also take down missiles.  Iran's current air force is primitive.  Iran has not demonstrated that it could make a manned assault on US forces.  It would need better aircraft than it has to make such an attack and would need transport for any infantry attack.  The threats appear to be limited to US bases in the Middle East.  US allies in the region would likely benefit from US defensive measures.  I suspect that US attacks against Iran's military would be mainly from aircraft and missiles.  Israel also has superior weapons than Iran.

Trump's threat against Iran's trading partners could also be a deterrent.

See also:

Trump Says He’s ‘Pissed Off’ at Putin, Threatens ‘Secondary Tariffs’ on Russia

The president said the tariffs could be imposed if a peace deal isn't reached for the Ukraine war...

And:

 Trump Warns Iran That Without a Nuclear Deal, ‘There Will Be Bombs’

And:

 President Trump Sends Explosive Message to Houthis - and Iran

...

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