Republican reasons for optimism in 2022

 Douglas Schoen:

Republicans are widely expected to win control of Congress in the November midterm elections. It’s not a question of ‘if’ Democrats will lose control of the House – and likely the Senate – but rather, by how many seats.

Even before President Joe Biden took office, historical trends suggested that Democrats, who hold slim congressional majorities, would be at risk in 2022: in midterm elections since 1974, the president’s party has lost an average of 23 House seats, according to Gallup. (RELATED: SHEFFIELD: Nancy Pelosi’s Incredible Shrinking House Majority)

By all indications, Democrats are on track to suffer a greater-than-average loss of seats this year, given that Biden’s approval rating and three other key national mood indicators — satisfaction with how things are going in the U.S., ratings of the economy and congressional job approval — are well-below the historical averages in past midterm election years, per the same Gallup analysis.

In the two worst midterm election years for Democrats in modern history — 2010 under former President Barack Obama and 1994 under former President Bill Clinton — the party lost 63 and 53 U.S. House seats, respectively. This year, Democrats could see even more substantial seat losses.

Indeed, President Biden’s approval rating is currently lower than both Obama’s and Clinton’s at the same points in their presidency. Further, compared to both 2010 and 1994, Americans in 2022 are less satisfied with the way things are going in the country, more pessimistic about the economy and less approving of Congress.

With just five months until the midterms, is there any chance that the Democratic Party will be able to reverse their political fortunes and prevent a red-wave election?

In short, it is possible, but highly unlikely at this point, given the multitude of crises facing the country and the hostile political environment Democrats face.

While some Democrats are optimistic that recent events will galvanize the party’s base and stem their losses — namely, the news of the Supreme Court potentially overturning Roe v. Wade and the renewed focus on gun control following a string of mass shootings — polling doesn’t bear that out.

Republicans have a 12-point voter enthusiasm advantage over Democrats, per an Economist/YouGov poll, which was conducted following the mass shootings in Buffalo, New York, and Uvalde, Texas, and thus after the news broke about Roe v. Wade.
...

Many of us can't wait to vote against Democrats in the coming election.  Their policies have been a serial disaster ever since the 2020 election.  They are a disaster on the economic front and the foreign policy front.  It is impossible to think of one thing that has improved on Biden's watch. 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Should Republicans go ahead and add Supreme Court Justices to head off Democrats

Washington Post: Some Democrats eye adding more justices to the Supreme Court to change its ideological bent The once-remote idea has gained the attention of liberals angered by the GOP push to remake the federal courts. Probably the easy way to defeat this court-packing scheme is for Trump to propose doing the same thing now.  It would lead to Democrat denunciations and claims that it would be wrong, thereby blowing up any attempt by them in the unfortunate event of Democrats winning a presidential election.
Read more

29 % of companies say they are unlikely to keep insurance after Obamacare

Conn Carroll: A new survey of 368 midsize to large companies found that 29% of them are considering terminating their active employee health care plans when Obamacare is full implemented in 2014. Only 71% of employers surveyed said they did not expect to drop their health coverage, while 20% said they did not know and 9% said they were planning to exit. The latest survey, conducted by Towers Watson, echoes an ealier survey by McKinsey & Co. finding that 30% of private-sector employers were planning to drop their employee health insurance coverage by 2014. When the Congressional Budget Office crunched Obamacare's spending numbers, they estimated that only 7% of employees currently covered by employer-sponsored plans would lose their plans. ... This means the cost of the health care fiasco will be hundreds of billions more than estimated by the CBO and Congressional Democrat. It is also clear that Obama's pledge that you could keep your health care plan if you wanted t
Read more

Bin Laden's concern about Zarqawi's remains

James Robbins: ... Bin Laden suggests that President Bush should allow Zarqawi’s body to be returned to his family in Jordan, but this is a matter that is up to the Jordanian government, which so far has not shown much interest in facilitating a homecoming. Bin Laden mocks King Abdullah II, calling him a Coalition minion, and asking “w hat scares you about Abu Musab after he’s dead? You know that his funeral, if allowed to happen, would be a huge funeral showing the extent of sympathy with the mujahedin.” A large crowd would definitely turn out, though most people would be on hand to demonstrate their anger and disgust. Last November’s hotel bombings in Amman , masterminded by Zarqawi, are still fresh in people’s memory, and mentioning them to Jordanians has the same visceral impact as memory of the 9/11 attacks does here. Jordan has adopted a zero-tolerance policy towards those who choose to mourn the country’s least favorite son, and four opposition members of parliament who paid con
Read more