Republican reasons for optimism in 2022

 Douglas Schoen:

Republicans are widely expected to win control of Congress in the November midterm elections. It’s not a question of ‘if’ Democrats will lose control of the House – and likely the Senate – but rather, by how many seats.

Even before President Joe Biden took office, historical trends suggested that Democrats, who hold slim congressional majorities, would be at risk in 2022: in midterm elections since 1974, the president’s party has lost an average of 23 House seats, according to Gallup. (RELATED: SHEFFIELD: Nancy Pelosi’s Incredible Shrinking House Majority)

By all indications, Democrats are on track to suffer a greater-than-average loss of seats this year, given that Biden’s approval rating and three other key national mood indicators — satisfaction with how things are going in the U.S., ratings of the economy and congressional job approval — are well-below the historical averages in past midterm election years, per the same Gallup analysis.

In the two worst midterm election years for Democrats in modern history — 2010 under former President Barack Obama and 1994 under former President Bill Clinton — the party lost 63 and 53 U.S. House seats, respectively. This year, Democrats could see even more substantial seat losses.

Indeed, President Biden’s approval rating is currently lower than both Obama’s and Clinton’s at the same points in their presidency. Further, compared to both 2010 and 1994, Americans in 2022 are less satisfied with the way things are going in the country, more pessimistic about the economy and less approving of Congress.

With just five months until the midterms, is there any chance that the Democratic Party will be able to reverse their political fortunes and prevent a red-wave election?

In short, it is possible, but highly unlikely at this point, given the multitude of crises facing the country and the hostile political environment Democrats face.

While some Democrats are optimistic that recent events will galvanize the party’s base and stem their losses — namely, the news of the Supreme Court potentially overturning Roe v. Wade and the renewed focus on gun control following a string of mass shootings — polling doesn’t bear that out.

Republicans have a 12-point voter enthusiasm advantage over Democrats, per an Economist/YouGov poll, which was conducted following the mass shootings in Buffalo, New York, and Uvalde, Texas, and thus after the news broke about Roe v. Wade.
...

Many of us can't wait to vote against Democrats in the coming election.  Their policies have been a serial disaster ever since the 2020 election.  They are a disaster on the economic front and the foreign policy front.  It is impossible to think of one thing that has improved on Biden's watch.