US farmers consider increased wheat production following Ukraine war

 USA Today:

Clay Schemm's great grandfather moved to Kansas in the 1920s with a tractor and not much else.

The cash crop was wheat.

Today, Schemm, 26, continues that tradition at farms in his home of Sharon Springs, Kan. near the state's western border and a few hundred miles away in eastern Kansas.

On the other side of the world, Russia's war in Ukraine has Schemm rethinking this year's harvests, just as the Biden administration is encouraging U.S. farmers to produce more wheat in response to the disruption of the market caused by the war in Ukraine — one of the world's top producers.

But Schemm said it might not be realistic for many reasons: growing seasons that are slow to respond to the unfolding crisis, federal incentives for double-cropping that aren't viable in most of his acres and a volatile wheat market. Wheat prices have fluctuated wildly after it soared for weeks following Russia's February invasion of Ukraine.

"Even that little bit drop in price has me very hesitant to go back in with wheat in the eastern farms," Schemm said.

More: How Russia's war against Ukraine could make our food prices – from bread to beer – more expensive

Biden heads Saturday to Germany for a meeting of the world's most powerful nations that make up the Group of Seven, or G7, where among the top priorities is addressing a global wheat shortage caused by Russia's war in Ukraine.

International organizations warn that current supply disruptions caused by the war are aggravating already high prices, which complicates access to food in some Northern African countries and parts of Asia that are dependent on Ukraine's wheat supply.

Yet even U.S. farmers like Schemm who want to ramp up their production can't do so easily, raising doubts that the U.S. can fill much of the void from Ukraine's wheat supply.

"It's not like in the U.S. we have all these unplanted acres, fields just lying fallow," said Veronica Nigh, senior economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation, which lobbies on behalf of farmers. "That's frustrating. Farmers want to do more. They want to be able to help to respond."
Limits to the push for more double-cropping

Droughts in the Great Plains and heavy rain in Minnesota and the Dakotas have slowed the production of wheat this year. Fertilizer costs have spiked as a result of the war. And the farming calendar presents another problem: Seventy percent of wheat in the U.S comes from a winter harvest – planted in the fall but not harvested until the spring, putting it off track with the immediate crisis in Ukraine.

There are also questions about the effectiveness of how the Biden administration is looking to expand wheat productions.

U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack met with United Nations members last week and relayed efforts by the federal government to encourage a farming process called double-cropping to boost the production of wheat. As an incentive, the Agriculture Department is working to extend federal insurance available to farmers to double-crop wheat to 681 additional counties.
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I think the US has the capacity to increase wheat production to deal with any shortage in this country.  Whether it will export wheat may be another question but I would not rule it out.