DeSantis leads in early polling

 Red States:

We haven’t even had the 2022 election yet and talk of 2024 is already heating up. Naturally, Donald Trump remains at the top of the conversation on the Republican side, but Ron DeSantis has become nearly as talked about as a probable challenger.

The latter has burst onto the scene the last two years as a no-nonsense, fighter of a governor who also has a knack for making the liberal press look ridiculous. Those are skills that GOP voters love, and they’ve earned DeSantis high marks nationally from the Republican base. That he’s also become the leader in the culture wars has only caused his star to rise further.

Just how far has he risen? The first primary poll out of New Hampshire delivered a stunning result on Wednesday, showing DeSantis leading Donald Trump and beating Joe Biden in a general election matchup. Trump is losing by seven points to Biden in the same poll.

President (New Hampshire)

DeSantis (R) 39%
Trump Sr. (R) 37%
Pence (R) 9%
Haley (R) 6%
Cruz (R) 1%
Noem (R) 1%
Pompeo (R) 1%

6/16-6/20 by University of New Hampshire (B-)
318 LV

Arf! Can I have a treat?

Poll #156901 #ElectionTwitter

— Stella (@stella2020woof) June 22, 2022

DeSantis' name recognition and support has absolutely exploded over the last year. I'm guessing liberal media hasn't yet learned how to avoid elevating the Republicans they dislike most. pic.twitter.com/f3V6kyDemo

— Yesh Ginsburg (@yesh222) June 22, 2022

Now, before anyone gets too up in arms, understand it’s June 2022. These types of polls are not predictive. They can simply show us trends and shifts in the current environment. Whether these results hold all the way until the primaries start in 2024 is not something anyone can know. In other words, whether you are more in the Trump camp or the DeSantis camp regarding a hypothetical matchup, there’s no reason to feel threatened by these results.

The poll is a data point worth talking about, though. If DeSantis does go on to win New Hampshire, the first primary, he’s almost certainly going to win Iowa, which has a caucus system that doesn’t favor Trump. And if DeSantis takes the first two primaries, all bets are off heading into the next stretch. Prior national polling will not matter at that point because inevitability and momentum mean everything in a presidential primary fight, something Trump himself showed in 2016. That’s not to say DeSantis would have things wrapped up, but he’d be in the driver’s seat.
...

Trump is caring some baggage from his response to the 2020 election results.  That is providing an opening for DeSantis supporters.  Whether it wi; be enough depend on what both men decide. 

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