Russia was not economically self-sufficient before the sanctions
What if your grand plans for economic self-sufficiency turned out instead to just make it easier to cut you off from the global economy? The Wall Street Journal’s report on the failure of Fortress Russia makes for compelling reading, and not just in Moscow. Vladimir Putin’s claims to have created an economy that could ignore the West have collapsed in dramatic fashion, and perhaps with it his façade of invincibility.
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So this exercise was doomed before it ever got started. Even before Putin launched his war in Ukraine, evidence of failure abounded:
But Russia’s dependence on imports actually worsened over the years. In 2021, some 81% of manufacturers said they couldn’t find any Russian versions of imported products they needed. More than half were dissatisfied with the quality of homegrown production. Both figures were the highest recorded since the survey by Russia’s Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy began in 2015.
In 2020, imports accounted for 75% of sales of nonfood consumer goods in the Russian retail market, according to a study by the Higher School of Economics in Moscow. In some sectors the share was even higher, rising to 86% for telecommunications equipment, the study found. Imports equaled around a fifth of GDP in 2020, compared with 16% in China and higher than other big economies such as India and Brazil.
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There is much more.
Russia's manufacturing and production problems are also showing up in the failure of its machinery of war. They are losing tanks and other vehicles at a surprising rate as well as aircraft. Their troops are going hungry and have trouble getting fuel. I think time is not on theri side in the war with Ukriane.
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