GOP could flip several state legislatures along with Congress

 Ryan James Girdusky:

It has been 12 years since Obama and the Democrats received a shellacking during his first midterm election. Everyone remembers what happened, the GOP picked up their largest gains in a single election since 1938 and retook the majority plus six Senate seats. Less remembered is that Democrats down-ballot lost 680 state legislative seats and realigned the countries politics.

Before 2010, several states that consistently voted Republican for President were still controlled by Democrats locally, including parts of the Midwest, Deep South, and the Prairie States. The Obama White House years forever changed that.

While experts can blame Obamacare and Democrats in Washington for shooting over the mark and pushing an overly partisan agenda, a large part of it, however, was longstanding trends that sped up with the arrival of Obama, Reid, and Pelosi to Washington. Working-class whites shifted heavily towards Republicans, and it was enough to give a serious blow to the Democrat Party and rip the gavel from Pelosi’s hands. Those voting trends are still standing, and despite it being over a decade since the 2010 midterm, Democrats have yet to recover from their losses in state legislatures.

As of February 1st, Democrats have 174 fewer State Senate seats and 582 fewer State House/Assembly seats than in 2009.
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While some states like New Hampshire, Nevada, and Colorado have swung back and forth over the last decade, Democrats in more than a dozen states have 30 percent fewer state legislators than they did before the 2010 midterm.

With Republicans surging in early polls and given the giant swings in both the Virginia and New Jersey’s elections, it’s pretty safe odds that we’re looking at a Red Wave this November that will flip both the House and Senate as well as 150 to 200 state legislative sweep. Still, the more important question is “could it be more than that?”

Many political analysts, including myself, have said we’re in the midst of a new realignment of working-class voters.

More multi-racial working-class voters are flocking to Republicans especially in some states and heavily urban areas. Latinos, Asians, whites, and even some pockets of black voters turned off by waves of violence, COVID shutdowns, and disruption in children’s education has turned voters against the Democrat Party.

We saw Trump improve with white-working class voters in 2016 and with Hispanics in 2020. Governor Youngkin even made further inroads with rural whites in Western Virginia, some rural black areas in Southeast Virginia, and some Hispanic and Asian precincts in Northern Virginia. Republicans in New Jersey had a clean sweep in the white ethnic area of South Jersey and made gains on Trump numbers in Hispanic parts of Passiac County. Republicans in New York City made gains in Hispanic and Asian areas, while trouncing Democrats in white-working class areas. Suburban Republicans in Nassau, Suffolk, and Northern Virginia made major gains.
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There is more including specific areas where the change is likely.  The Texas Rio Grande Valley is one of those areas where change is possible if not likely.  It is not just Biden that has turned people against Democrats.  Pelosi, Schumer, and Congressional Democrats are also alienating voters along with blue state governors and legislatures.  There are many of us who plan to vote against every Democrat on the ballot.

See, also:

Outgoing Tennessee Democrat congressman says party 'facing extinction' in his state, relying on 'blind hope' 

Democratic Party has no strategy to appeal to rural voters, congressman warned