Trump is running behind almost all GOP Senate candidates

Leon Wolf:
It is generally accepted that there are ten genuinely competitive Senate races in play in 2016 - nine in states that are held by Republicans (Arizona, Wisconsin, Florida, Missouri, New Hampshire, Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina) and one held by a Democrat (Nevada). Darryl Glenn is at least within shouting distance of Bennet in Colorado, but we have no recent polling of Colorado's Presidential race to evaluate for the purposes of this comparison.

FiveThirtyEight took a look at the polls for these races on both the Presidential and Senate side, and put together this chart:

In every one of these states other than Wisconsin (where it is a virtual tie), Trump is underperforming the Republican Senate candidate by a significant margin. In the swing states that he needs to win worst (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida), he is trailing the Republican Senate candidate by a lot.
It looks like Trump needs the support of the GOP senate candidates more than they need him.  The only contest where he is even close to the senate candidate is Wisconsin where they both trail by a margin that is likely outside the margin of error.

What this suggest is that the Democrats are still not going to get control of congress regardless of the outcome in the Presidential contest.  His gratuitous attacks on them make no sense.


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