Trump is losing because he alienated conservative voters

Leon Wolf:
In Presidential elections where the Republican candidate wins or comes close, you tend to see the same dynamic unfold in terms of the ideological breakdown of the electorate. The Republican wins between 80 and 85% of conservatives, the Democrat wins between 80 and 85% of liberals, and the Democrat wins moderates by some relatively small percentage. The Republican either wins or comes close based on the strength of the fact that self-identified conservatives usually outnumber self-identified liberals by around 35%-25%. This is the dynamic you saw in both 2004 and 2012, which were both very close elections.

Hidden in today's CBS's poll (not included in the crosstabs) is an indication that Trump's alienation of conservatives is the reason he is behind in this poll.
Steven Portnoy ✔ @stevenportnoy
Trump's support among self-ID'd conservatives in our @CBSNewsPoll is at 64%.
Bush in '04 exits - 84%
McCain in '08 - 78%
Romney in '12 -82%
In other words, Trump is getting 20 percent less support than the last Republican who actually won the presidency.   There are some assumptions in the calculation, but the trend seems obvious with so many conservatives openly opposing Trump.

Trump seems determined not to even court the conservatives or earn their votes.  In a recent appearance in Ohio, Trump was still attacking Ted Cruz instead of Hillary Clinton and made the absurd claim that he "saved Cruz's life" at the convention.  What Trump actually did is blow an opportunity.  If he were as smart as he claims to be, he would have said after Cruz's speech, "Thanks for the endorsement, because I know if Republicans vote their conscience they will vote for me.  Instead, he encouraged rudeness and divisiveness.


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