Senate Democrats vulnerable on raising taxes
Round three of the great American tax and spending debate of the early 21st century is opening.
There are nine Senate Democrats who are most interested in a comprehensive "deal" between President Obama and Republican House Speaker John Boehner: They are Mark Begich of Alaska, Max Baucus of Montana, Al Franken of Minnesota, Kay Hagan of North Carolina, Tim Johnson of South Dakota, Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, Mark Pryor of Arkansas, Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire and Mark Udall of Colorado.
These are the most vulnerable of the Senate's majority. A growth-destroying round of ruinous tax hikes will cripple their re-election campaigns right out of the box. Indeed, any vote that defines the campaign ahead -- yes, it's already underway -- is perilous for incumbents of a president's party facing the six-year mark of the Chief Executive's election.
Six GOP senators were unseated in 2006 -- Virginia's George Allen, Montana's Conrad Burns, Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island, Mike DeWine of Ohio, Jim Talent of Missouri and Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania.
The impeachment cycles of 1998 and 1974 are not good measures of anything, but the elections of 1986 seem to give us the best parallel to those that loom in two years. Ronald Reagan was elected in a landslide in 1980, and brought along with him a number of marginal GOP senate seats that were then given back to Democrats in 1986. Republicans lost a net eight seats, a grim reminder for Harry Reid that all majorities are fleeting.
So do Democrats standing for re-election in 2014 want to run on crippling the not-for-profit sector by limiting or ending the charitable deduction, as Obama has proposed? Are they in favor of devaluing every home in America by capping or ending the mortgage interest deduction?
...Some of these people are really vulnerable especially Begich and Franken who won close races . Begich won because the Justice Department pushed a case against Stevens that was later overturned. Franken won on the strength of illegal votes by felons on a very questionable recount. North Carolina is trending Republican again which should be a problem for Kagan. Pryor is one of the few Democrats left in Arkansas. Louisiana has also become a Republican state.