..."It's definitely having an effect," says Kenneth Katzman a Middle East specialist at the Congressional Research Service. "The question is: Is it having enough of an effect," to make Iran change course.
Other experts say that despite high inflation and decreased Iranian oil exports, sanctions have not produced the desired impact on Iran's nuclear program, which the United States says is aimed at building a nuclear weapon.
"There are no indications that these sanctions are forcing leaders to rethink their nuclear program or rolling back their nuclear activities," says Maseh Zarif, Iran team leader for the American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project.
The only thing that will cause a change in the regime's behavior, "is a threat to regime survival," Zarif says.
Sanctions administered by the U.S. Treasury prohibitU.S. companies from trade and financial dealings with Iran, and the European Union restricts trade, financial services and technology business with Iran. The United States also forbids any nation to pay Iran for its oil with dollars, which is the currency used for much of the global petroleum trade.
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Meanwhile, India and China are working around the sanctions. Instead of accepting dollars for its oil, Iran, the world's fourth-largest oil producer, is trading crude oil for gold, cars, dishwashers, refrigerators, clothes, Chinese cosmetics and Indian wheat, sugar and cooking oil, Katzman says.
Sanctions have also forced European insurance companies to deny insurance to port operators dealing with Iran. As a result, Iranian oil tankers have been turned away at foreign ports, and fewer shipping companies are carrying Iranian oil, Katzman says.
But Iran is buying 12 new super-tankers from China to carry its oil, according to Reuters news service. And Iran is also self-insuring its ships. Even so, Katzman says, it's not clear how many port operators will accept Iranian insurance.
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I think the only way to make the regime change course is to make a credible threat to their staying in power. That is something this administration has not ben willing to do and people within the civil service have taken steps to thwart efforts to make a credible threat by leaking material suggesting that Iran is not working on nuclear weapons. This is in spite of evidence to the contrary.
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