Obama in trouble in swing states

The Hill:
The sentiment among voters has soured for President Obama in 12 key swing states that he won in 2008, according to a USA Today-Gallup poll released on Friday, indicating the president faces a tough battle for reelection.
Mitt Romney, Herman Cain and Rick Perry are either leading or within striking distance of the president in these toss-up states, and the poll indicates a desire for change and an enthusiasm gap within the president’s base that will be a challenge for his campaign to address.
...
 According to these estimates, Obama would need to win about half of the 151 electoral votes supplied by Michigan, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin and New Hampshire in order to secure a second term.
He’ll have his work cut out for him.
Sixty percent of swing state voters said they were worse off than they were three years ago, versus only 37 percent who said they were better off. This is in contrast to the non-swing states, where the ratio is 54 to 44 percent.
In addition, nearly 75 percent of voters in the 12 swing states said they aren’t happy with the direction of the country.
In head to head swing state match-ups, Obama leads Cain by three points and Perry by five. But Romney leads the president by one point in the swing states, and the nationwide poll has Obama and Romney in a 47-47 tie.
The president may also have a hard time duplicating the voter turnout that propelled him into the White House in 2008. By a margin of two to one, Republicans in the swing states were more likely to be “extremely enthusiastic” about voting for president next year. 
Without the energy of his unique and history-making 2008 run, some have speculated that the Obama campaign may have to run a considerably more negative campaign this time around. 
That move could backfire, as voters currently have a favorable personal view of the president....
Obama will be nasty because he does not have a positive message based on his record.  I think it will backfire with independent voters, but it is really aimed at suppressing the GOP turnout.  Based on this poll and the eagerness of Republicans to vote, I do not think his strategy will work.

Comments

  1. John Scotus11:43 PM

    The president sure has his work cut out for him if he wants to be re-elected. But leave it to the GOP to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. They could well find a way.

    ReplyDelete

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