North American record oil output expected in 2016

Houston Chronicle:

Maybe Hubbert’s Peak isn’t the tallest mountain after all.
North American oil production will hit a new all-time high by 2016 given the current pace of drilling in the U.S. and Canada, according to a study released by an energy research firm this week.
U.S. oil production in areas like the Permian Basin, the Eagle Ford, Bakken and others will rise by a little over 2 million barrels per day between 2010 and 2016, according to data compiled by Bentek Energy, a Colorado firm that tracks energy infrastructure and production projects.
It’s a reversal of the steady downward production trend that started around 1970, when U.S. oil production peaked at around 9.5 million barrels per day.
Canadian crude production is expected to grow by about 971,000 barrels per day between 2010 and 2016, with much of it headed for U.S. refineries.
Combined, the U.S. and Canadian oil output will top 11.5 million barrels per day, which is even more than the amount produced at the peak in 1972.
The data assumes production levels stay roughly where they are right now, but the study doesn’t take into account predictions of growing global oil demand or the higher prices that follow.
... 
It also probably does not assume a new administration that would open up more areas for development in the Western US and Alaska as well as offshore production which could significantly to the production.  This is happening when data also shows that drilling in the Rockies is down significantly since 2008.
How down? Using Bureau of Land Management (BLM) leasing data from 2008 through the current federal fiscal year (ending Sept. 30), WEA says the number of parcels offered has declined 70 percent. Acreage is down 81 percent and revenue 44 percent. The numbers would be worse if not for production gains in the Bakken formation in North Dakota and Montana and the Niobrara in Wyoming.

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