2 new polls favor GOP

US News:

Pew Research Center President Andrew Kohut just sent us an E-mail that is making Republicans cheer and Democrats sick. In Pew's polling, he says, the much-talked about GOP enthusiasm edge over Democrats is turning into a sizable voter turnout advantage, one even bigger than in 1994 when conservatives shocked Washington and took control of the House and Senate.

The bottom line in his poll: Republicans by a huge margin think their party will do better in the fall elections

than the Democrats and they are ready to make sure it happens. Here's Kohut's E-mail and links to his polling:

"With four months to go before Election Day, voting intentions for the House remain closely divided, and neither party has gained or lost much ground over the course of 2010. However, Republicans are much more engaged in the coming election and more inclined to say they are certain to vote than are Democrats. This could translate into a sizable turnout advantage for the GOP in November that could transform an even race among registered voters into a solid victory for the Republicans.

Fully 56% of Republican voters say they are more enthusiastic about voting this year than in previous elections. That is nearly double the percentage of GOP voters that expressed increased enthusiasm in June 2006 and surpasses the percentage of Republicans saying this in October 1994, near the end of that historic campaign. Enthusiasm among Democratic voters overall is on par with levels in 2006, but fewer liberal Democrats say they are more enthusiastic about voting than did so four years ago.

...

Gallup also had good news for Republicans:

By an average 10 percentage-point margin since March, 45% to 35%, independent registered voters have consistently preferred the Republican to the Democrat when asked which congressional candidate they would vote for in their district. Independents' preference for Republicans has been generally consistent over this time, with the gap in favor of Republicans increasing slightly since March, from 8 to 12 points.

...
When you add an enthusiastic base to a preference among independents, the Republicans should do very well this fall.

Democrats were on the wrong side of the voters on health care and now they are on the wrong side of voters on immigration.

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