The ignorance of escalation theory in Gaza

NY Times:

Israeli warplanes pounded Hamas targets in Gaza for an eighth day on Saturday while Israel allowed hundreds of foreigners, many of them married to Palestinians, to leave the enclave, raising fears there that Israel was planning to escalate its week-old campaign.

Tensions spread to the West Bank and East Jerusalem, where Palestinian anger at reports of civilian casualties in Gaza seemed to be translating into at least a temporary increase in popular sympathy for Hamas.

Israel has vowed to press its offensive until there is no more rocket fire out of Gaza; its troops and tanks remained along the border, poised for a possible ground invasion.

The United Nations special coordinator for the Middle East, Robert Serry, told reporters on Friday that he was deeply worried that Israel would decide to move into Gaza.

“We are gravely concerned about that prospect because that would just mean another cycle of violence and a further escalation of the conflict,” he said. “This must stop. With Israeli tanks on Gaza’s border, it is absolutely imperative now that we find an immediate and lasting way out to avoid an even deeper and deadlier conflict.”

Israeli analysts and experts have said that any ground operation should be brief but powerful.

Alex Fishman, the military analyst of the popular daily newspaper Yediot Aharonot, wrote Friday, “Since the name of the game is killing and destruction, the ground operation has to be quick, with a lot of firepower at friction points with Hamas.” He added, “The goal is to exact a high price in the early stages of the ground operation and to end it quickly.”

Palestinian militants continued to launch salvos of rockets at southern Israel on Friday, with several hitting the coastal city of Ashkelon, lightly injuring two Israeli women there.

Israeli air and naval forces pummeled more bases of Hamas, the Islamic group that controls Gaza. The military said it hit the houses of several Hamas militants that also served as weapons depots as well as tunnels used for weapons smuggling and missile launching sites. Warplanes also bombed a mosque in Jabaliya, in northern Gaza. The military said that Hamas was using the mosque as a terrorist base and that it was storing rockets there.

...

About 2,000 Gazans turned out for the funeral in Jabaliya on Friday. Speakers called for revenge as Israeli fighter jets swooped threateningly overhead.

...

Those talking about escalation show a fundamental ignorance of warfare. They view the Israeli attacks as punitive rather than having a specific military purpose. However, a good bombing campaign is always a prelude to a combined arms operation meant to seize real estate for some purpose. In Israel's case the seizure is for the purpose of removing and or destroying those committing war crimes by firing rockets at Israeli noncombatants. That is not an escalation of the conflict but the continuation of a planned operation.

The UN representative continues to show not only an ignorance of warfare, but a bias against Israel. He should be focusing on Hamas war crimes of firing on noncombatants and using its people as civilian shields for its war against Israel. Instead he seems to think that just because Hamas is the weaker party its war crimes can be excused. That is a very immoral approach to the problem and probably explains why he has been so ineffective in stopping the conflict.

A more rational approach by a weaker party is to do nothing to provoke a response by your adversary. It is pretty clear that if Hamas would quit firing rockets on Israeli noncombatants, there would be no conflict. What is so hard to understand here? Hamas must think that it can get some advantage by killing Israeli noncombatants and getting Israel to kill its noncombatants. The UN representative would be wise to deal with that moral inversion rather than wringing his hands about "escalation."

As for those 2,000 Gazans who turned out for the funeral of one of the Hamas death cult leaders, they put the lie to the argument that Israel is engaged in a massacre against Gaza civilians. No doubt there were probably other death cult leaders in the crowd and Israel could have taken out the entire group with a couple of large bombs. If massacre is their objective why pass up this opportunity? Massacre and genocide are just words used by the religious bigots who oppose Israel and they bear no relation tot he facts on the ground in Gaza.