Who won in Basra?

Washington Post:

Residents in the southern city of Basra on Monday reported an end to fierce fighting and said Iraqi security forces were able to enter some neighborhoods controlled by fighters loyal to Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr.

"Today the life came back to our neighborhood but it was not that normal," said resident Raed Jawdat. Drivers had to avoid bombs planted in the road. Residents went out in search of fresh water and food but found that some markets had been burned.

Munaf Jassim, who lives in the neighborhood of Tanouma, said Iraqi forces arrived Sunday evening and launched an offensive against Sadr's Mahdi Army militia. "It was a big battle all night," he said. "In the morning we noticed all the Mahdi Army fighters fled."

The cleric on Sunday ordered his followers to stand down, apparently after receiving assurances that Mahdi Army fighters would not be targeted by Iraqi forces. Sadr's order came nearly a week after government forces launched an offensive that officials said was designed to rid the oil-rich southern city of militias and criminal gangs.

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Deciding who won depends on what the fight was about. Those who think Sadr won because he survived miss the point of the battle. This was really a fight about real estate more than it was a fight about politics. As a fight about real estate the Iraqi government clearly won since Sadr's forces quit fighting and let the government forces control some strategic real estate in Basra that will give them more control over the flow of oil out of the country. That is what the fight was really about despite the overblown rhetoric on both sides.

If the government is able to assert control over the city and more importantly the oil terminals then Maliki clearly won an important victory. That Sadr survives politically is a matter for another day.

The Belmont Club does an analysis of the claims of a Sadr political victory and finds them wanting. He also makes a good point about the limited logistics of militia fighters who were probably out of ammo when they stopped fighting.

The Strata-Sphere asks if Sadr won who is doing the street celebration?

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